Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $102B · ISIN CA1363851017
What is Canadian Natural Resources Ltd really worth?
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
CNQ · US
A solid business, but trading 62% above our fair value of $31.66.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $31.28 to $31.66 (+1.2%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +10.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($24.53 to $81.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.60 – $51.81 · fair‑value band $24.53 – $81.95 · the $51.14 price screens above the $31.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) currently trades at $51.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.66, implying the stock looks roughly 61.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $87.51 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $51.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.41, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd generated revenue of $38.6B at a net margin of 25.1%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at $19.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.53 (bear case) to $81.95 (bull case); at $51.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −38%, CNQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8337 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($87.51) versus Asset-Based ($14.41). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa.
Full company description
Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), mining bitumen, light and medium crude oil and NGLs, thermal bitumen, primary heavy crude oil and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd reported revenue of C$44.2B in FY2025 versus C$32.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$10.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
CNQ screens 62% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $98.16 | $106.45 | +8% |
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