CNOOC Limited (600938) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 1.4T CNY (≈ $206B) · ISIN CNE100005980
What is CNOOC Limited really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥32.55.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +8.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range ¥10.41 – ¥42.68 · fair‑value band ¥24.46 – ¥42.29 · the ¥33.41 price screens above the ¥32.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CNOOC Limited (600938) currently trades at ¥33.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥32.55, implying the stock looks roughly 2.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥38.69 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥33.41 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥11.32, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, CNOOC Limited generated revenue of 407B CNY at a net margin of 30.6%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 8.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥24.46 (bear case) to ¥42.29 (bull case); at ¥33.41, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −3%, 600938 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.9609 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥38.69) versus Asset-Based (¥11.32). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China.
Full company description
CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China. It also holds interests in various oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Oceania, and Europe. In addition, the company is involved in the sales and trading of petroleum and natural gas; oil sands exploration, development, and production; and exploration, development, and production of unconventional natural gas resources in onshore China, as well as in shale oil and gas activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hong Kong. CNOOC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CNOOC (BVI) LTD.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CNOOC Limited reported revenue of 396B CNY in FY2025 versus 246B CNY in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was 122B CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CNOOC (SEHK:883) Could Be 24% Below Fair Value Following Record Half Year Results
- CNOOC H1 2026 net profit rises 23.4% to $12.76bn
- CNOOC Limited Focuses on Value Creation, Production and Profit Hit New Highs in H1 2026
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $98.16 | $106.45 | +8% |
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