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Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $54.6B · ISIN US6745991058

What is Occidental Petroleum Corporation really worth?

OP Occidental Petroleum Corporation logo Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY · US
Price$60.61
Fair Value$30.06
Upside−50.4%
Quality48/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 102% above our fair value of $30.06.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 22.4% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100

For context

·1.62% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $19.16 – $41.68

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price +10.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($41.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($19.16 to $41.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$71.47 $20.51 Fair Value $30.06 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $20.51 – $71.47 · fair‑value band $19.16 – $41.68 · the $60.61 price screens above the $30.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) currently trades at $60.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.06, implying the stock looks roughly 101.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $27.37 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $60.61 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.24, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Occidental Petroleum Corporation generated revenue of $21.1B at a net margin of 22.4%. Revenue declined 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at $22.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $19.16 (bear case) to $41.68 (bull case); at $60.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −50%, OXY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $25.54 $43.96 $69.89 76
Growth DCF $26.91 $44.21 $67.61 75
Residual Income $29.26 $30.71 $32.19 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $25.54 $43.96 $69.89 76
Owner Earnings $18.87 $34.46 $56.42 72
5Y Revenue Exit $8.78 $18.29 $29.57 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $26.15 $48.89 $73.99 71
5Y P/E Exit $11.81 $23.62 $35.11 67
10Y Revenue Exit $14.19 $23.77 $34.88 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $25.52 $44.35 $66.96 65
10Y P/E Exit $16.59 $27.36 $38.87 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $16.20 $35.68 $45.50 64
PEG = 1.0 $5.69 $8.12 $10.56 55
EPV $7.93 $12.24 $16.01 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $14.71 $23.37 $33.03 66
DDM Multi-Stage $14.71 $21.34 $28.78 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $25.01 $33.34 $41.68 63
P/S Multiple $19.54 $26.05 $32.56 58
P/B Multiple $30.37 $40.49 $50.61 55
EV/EBIT $10.14 $19.49 $28.85 63
EV/EBITDA $32.99 $49.96 $66.94 66
EV/Revenue $0.3100 $8.12 $15.94 46
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $18.11 $24.27 $36.23 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $26.91 $44.21 $67.61 75
Rev-Margin DCF $8.78 $19.03 $30.12 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $29.26 $30.71 $32.19 74
ROIC Compounder $7.93 $12.24 $16.01 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $19.16 $27.37 $35.58 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($27.37) versus Earnings-Based ($12.24). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 81.9
P/S ratio 8.99 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.7400 price ÷ EPS = P/E 81.9
Dividend yield 1.6% payout 132%
Net margin 11.0% FY2025
Return on equity 4.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 17.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $21.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −8.3% 3y avg −15.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +316%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $4.1B FY2025
Net debt $22.0B FY2025 · ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing.

Full company description

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $21.6B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$21.6B
Latest YoY
−20.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−15.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−3.8% (−5.4 + 1.6)
Revenue −4.5%/yr
FY21 $26.0B
FY22 $36.3B
FY23 $28.3B
FY24 $27.1B
FY25 $21.6B
Net income +0.6%/yr
FY21 $2.3B
FY22 $13.2B
FY23 $4.7B
FY24 $3.0B
FY25 $2.4B

OXY screens 102% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Occidental Petroleum Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OXY

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Above median
Fair Value upside −50% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Below median
Revenue growth −8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 81.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 13.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.16× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 9
FUTURE0 · sector 7
PAST16 · sector 9
HEALTH73 · sector 87
DIVIDEND32 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 −1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.03 C$44.78 −35%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $200.52 $105.24 −48%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $47.35 $27.06 −43%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%
Expand Energy Corporation EXE $98.16 $106.45 +8%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.06 versus a price of $60.61, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OXY?
Our model-based fair value for Occidental Petroleum Corporation is $30.06 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $60.61.
What is the quality score of OXY?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $21.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OXY?
The net profit margin of Occidental Petroleum Corporation is about 22.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 22.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.62% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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