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Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $50.6B · ISIN US25179M1036

What is Devon Energy Corporation really worth?

DE Devon Energy Corporation logo Devon Energy Corporation DVN · US
Price$48.79
Fair Value$27.06
Upside−44.5%
Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 80% above our fair value of $27.06.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 14.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +28.9 %/yr)
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!The models disagree: range $18.70 to $51.58

For context

·1.97% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $18.70 – $51.58

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +10.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($18.70 to $51.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$66.21 $19.46 Fair Value $27.06 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.46 – $66.21 · fair‑value band $18.70 – $51.58 · the $48.79 price screens above the $27.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) currently trades at $48.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.06, implying the stock looks roughly 80.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $44.71 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $48.79 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.64, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Devon Energy Corporation generated revenue of $16.0B at a net margin of 14.2%. Revenue declined 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.2%. Net debt stands at $7.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $18.70 (bear case) to $51.58 (bull case); at $48.79, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −45%, DVN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.79 per share, which is 6.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $31.61 $65.72 $128.27 76
EPV $20.19 $24.42 $28.12 74
Growth DCF $30.96 $61.17 $114.38 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $31.61 $65.72 $128.27 76
Owner Earnings $26.02 $54.95 $107.99 72
5Y Revenue Exit $14.90 $27.28 $43.76 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $25.03 $49.00 $79.66 73
5Y P/E Exit $21.78 $42.04 $65.67 69
10Y Revenue Exit $19.63 $33.65 $54.83 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $26.91 $49.92 $86.05 66
10Y P/E Exit $24.72 $44.71 $73.88 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $15.58 $82.15 $113.72 63
Lynch FV $22.59 $32.27 $41.96 61
PEG = 1.0 $22.59 $32.27 $41.96 57
EPV $20.19 $24.42 $28.12 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.93 $10.25 $16.25 66
DDM Multi-Stage $4.93 $8.64 $10.75 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $24.05 $32.07 $40.09 63
P/S Multiple $13.41 $17.88 $22.35 58
P/B Multiple $18.17 $24.23 $30.29 55
EV/EBIT $19.91 $28.27 $36.62 65
EV/EBITDA $23.91 $33.60 $43.29 67
EV/Revenue $7.35 $12.72 $18.08 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.73 $9.02 $13.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $30.96 $61.17 $114.38 74
Rev-Margin DCF $14.90 $27.24 $43.89 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $15.14 $20.21 $69.82 64
ROIC Compounder $23.44 $34.95 $49.22 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $27.78 $39.68 $51.58 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($44.71) versus Dividend Discount ($8.64). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.6
P/S ratio 2.09 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $3.59 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6
Dividend yield 2.0% payout 26.7%
Net margin 15.4% FY2025
Return on equity 15.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 19.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $16.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.8% 3y avg −3.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −75.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $3.1B FY2025
Net debt $7.3B FY2025 · ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.

Full company description

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford located in North America, Anadarko Basin located in western Oklahoma, Williston Basin located in North Dakota, and Powder River Basin located in Wyoming. Devon Energy Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Devon Energy Corporation reported revenue of $17.2B in FY2025 versus $12.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$17.2B
Latest YoY
+7.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+28.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (38Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.2% (3.2 + 2.0)
Revenue +8.9%/yr
FY21 $12.2B
FY22 $19.2B
FY23 $15.3B
FY24 $15.9B
FY25 $17.2B
Net income −1.6%/yr
FY21 $2.8B
FY22 $6.0B
FY23 $3.7B
FY24 $2.9B
FY25 $2.6B

DVN screens 80% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Devon Energy Corporation · Fair Value
$27.06 −80%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Devon Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DVN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −45% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth −1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.26× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.16× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.92× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 9
FUTURE0 · sector 7
PAST61 · sector 9
HEALTH76 · sector 87
DIVIDEND39 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 −1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.03 C$44.78 −35%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $59.17 $30.06 −49%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $200.52 $105.24 −48%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%
Expand Energy Corporation EXE $98.16 $106.45 +8%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.06 versus a price of $48.79, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DVN?
Our model-based fair value for Devon Energy Corporation is $27.06 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.79.
What is the quality score of DVN?
Devon Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)?
Devon Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DVN?
The net profit margin of Devon Energy Corporation is about 14.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Devon Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Devon Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.97% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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