Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $22.6B · ISIN US1651677353
What is Expand Energy Corporation really worth?
Expand Energy Corporation
EXE · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $106.45.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +7.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($76.13 to $139.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.47 – $120.76 · fair‑value band $76.13 – $139.95 · the $99.05 price screens below the $106.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) currently trades at $99.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.45, implying the stock looks roughly 7.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $159.10 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $99.05 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $51.48, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Expand Energy Corporation generated revenue of $13.0B at a net margin of 24.9%. Revenue grew 41.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. Net debt stands at $4.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $76.13 (bear case) to $139.95 (bull case); at $99.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 7%, EXE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.96 per share, which is 6.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($159.10) versus Dividend Discount ($51.48). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.
Full company description
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana and Texas. Expand Energy Corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Spring, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Expand Energy Corporation reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Is Expand Energy (EXE) Up 4.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Expand Energy (EXE) is Building a Natural Gas Powerhouse. But is the Growth Story at Risk?
- Expand Energy Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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