ConocoPhillips (COP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $132B · ISIN US20825C1045
What is ConocoPhillips really worth?
ConocoPhillips
COP · US
A solid business, but trading 51% above our fair value of $90.15.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +15.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($112.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.48 – $137.20 · fair‑value band $67.61 – $112.68 · the $135.72 price screens above the $90.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
ConocoPhillips (COP) currently trades at $135.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.15, implying the stock looks roughly 50.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $135.29 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $135.72 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $35.08, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ConocoPhillips generated revenue of $59.4B at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at $16.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $67.61 (bear case) to $112.68 (bull case); at $135.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −34%, COP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.81 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($135.29) versus Earnings-Based ($35.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific.
Full company description
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ConocoPhillips reported revenue of $58.7B in FY2025 versus $46.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
COP screens 51% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $98.16 | $106.45 | +8% |
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