WCP.TO (WCP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$19.4B (≈ $14.0B) · ISIN CA96467A2002
What is WCP.TO really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 94% above our fair value of C$9.34.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +11.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$12.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (C$6.25 to C$12.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$3.64 – C$18.43 · fair‑value band C$6.25 – C$12.05 · the C$18.12 price screens above the C$9.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
WCP.TO (WCP) currently trades at C$18.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.34, implying the stock looks roughly 94.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$33.23 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$18.12 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$5.45, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, WCP.TO generated revenue of C$6.2B at a net margin of 13.7%. Revenue grew 114.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at C$4.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$6.25 (bear case) to C$12.05 (bull case); at C$18.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −48%, WCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$33.23) versus Economic Profit (C$5.45). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Whitecap Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, and holding of interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets in Western Canada. Its primary areas of focus are development programs located in Northern Alberta, British Columbia, Central Alberta, and Western and Eastern Saskatchewan.
Full company description
Whitecap Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, and holding of interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets in Western Canada. Its primary areas of focus are development programs located in Northern Alberta, British Columbia, Central Alberta, and Western and Eastern Saskatchewan. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
WCP.TO reported revenue of C$5.2B in FY2025 versus C$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$985M in FY2025, compounding −13.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +22.6 % · buybacks/dilution −9.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WCP screens 94% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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