Wayfair Inc (W) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.1B · ISIN US94419L1017
What is Wayfair Inc really worth?
Wayfair Inc
W · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 746% above our fair value of $11.46.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −16.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($2.76 to $20.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.14 – $333.00 · fair‑value band $2.76 – $20.16 · the $96.98 price screens above the $11.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Wayfair Inc (W) currently trades at $96.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.46, implying the stock looks roughly 746.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $39.35 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the $96.98 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $7.71, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Wayfair Inc generated revenue of $12.7B at a net margin of −2.4%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $2.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.76 (bear case) to $20.16 (bull case); at $96.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −88%, W screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($39.35) versus Growth DCF ($7.71). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. It provides online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites comprising Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional.
Full company description
Wayfair Inc. engages in the e-commerce business in the United States and internationally. It provides online selections of furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products through its sites comprising Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional. The company offers its products under the Three Posts and Mercury Row brands. Wayfair Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Wayfair Inc reported revenue of $12.5B in FY2025 versus $13.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$313M in FY2025.
W screens 746% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Wayfair highlighted as Zacks Bull and Louisiana-Pacific Bear of the Day
- Bull of the Day: Wayfair (W)
- Wayfair (W) Is Back In Focus, So What Are Investors Weighing Now?
- Is Wayfair’s (W) Altamonte Store Plan Quietly Redefining Its Omnichannel Investment Narrative?
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $256.26 | $127.67 | −50% |
| Alibaba Group 89988 | HK$97.45 | HK$48.38 | −50% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $85.69 | $225.48 | +163% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,966 | $798.98 | −59% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $222.00 | $38.64 | −83% |
| Sea Limited SE | $118.32 | $52.70 | −55% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | −22% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $105.62 | $60.13 | −43% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | −83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.05 | €12.71 | −66% |
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