Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.6T · ISIN US0231351067
What is Amazon.com Inc really worth?
Amazon.com Inc
AMZN · US
A solid business, but trading 103% above our fair value of $127.67.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −6.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($208.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($69.09 to $208.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $81.82 – $284.02 · fair‑value band $69.09 – $208.89 · the $258.90 price screens above the $127.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) currently trades at $258.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.67, implying the stock looks roughly 102.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $239.42 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $258.90 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $25.26, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Amazon.com Inc generated revenue of $743B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.3%. Net debt stands at $66.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $69.09 (bear case) to $208.89 (bull case); at $258.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at −51%, AMZN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.43 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($239.42) versus Growth DCF ($25.26). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Full company description
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, enterprises, content creators, advertisers, and employees. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Amazon.com Inc reported revenue of $717B in FY2025 versus $470B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $77.7B in FY2025, compounding +23.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +21.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AMZN screens 103% overvalued. Compare with Alibaba Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Amazon's $100 Billion Anthropic Contract Gets a 45% Cheaper Engine
- DOJ expands beef price probe to eight retailers, including Walmart and Amazon, with inflation a key issue ahead of midterm elections
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba Group 89988 | HK$97.45 | HK$48.38 | −50% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $85.69 | $225.48 | +163% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,966 | $798.98 | −59% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $222.00 | $38.64 | −83% |
| Sea Limited SE | $118.32 | $52.70 | −55% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | −22% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $105.62 | $60.13 | −43% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | −83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.05 | €12.71 | −66% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $99.27 | $11.46 | −88% |
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