Volvo Car AB (VOLCAR-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 56.3B SEK
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from kr 5.45 to kr 10.90 (+100.0%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −4.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 17.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 5.24 to kr 17.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range kr 16.17 – kr 84.45 · fair‑value band kr 5.24 – kr 17.32 · the kr 19.50 price screens above the kr 10.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Volvo Car AB (VOLCAR-B) currently trades at kr 19.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 10.90, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Volvo Car AB generated revenue of 347B SEK at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue declined 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 19.8B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 5.24 (bear case) to kr 17.32 (bull case); at kr 19.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -44%, VOLCAR-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 39.84) versus Earnings-Based (kr 0.4500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Volvo Car AB (publ.) designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells cars in Sweden and internationally. The company offers battery electric vehicles; non-battery electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid, mild hybrid, and internal combustion engine cars; and electrified cars, as well as SUV, estate, and saloon cars.
Full company description
Volvo Car AB (publ.) designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells cars in Sweden and internationally. The company offers battery electric vehicles; non-battery electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid, mild hybrid, and internal combustion engine cars; and electrified cars, as well as SUV, estate, and saloon cars. It also provides vehicle parts and accessories, as well as provides maintenance contracts, extended warranties, connectivity, and in-car software services. The company offers cars under the Volvo Cars, Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, Tesla, and other brands name. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden. Volvo Car AB (publ.) operates as a subsidiary of Geely Sweden Holdings AB.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Volvo Car AB reported revenue of kr 357B in FY2025 versus kr 282B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was kr 174M in FY2025, compounding −65.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −47.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VOLCAR-B screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Volvo Cars expects turnaround despite ‘challenging environment’
- Volvo Cars (OM:VOLCAR B) Stock May Be 47% Undervalued As Q2 Profit Returns
- Volvo Cars posts Q2 profit as US shows signs of recovery, China remains weak
- Volvo Cars sees declining sales in 'challenging' environment
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.22 | $247.83 | +32% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,610 MXN | +37% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,783 CZK | +262% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,875 | ₹8,236 | -41% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 135,600 KRW | 341,751 KRW | +152% |
| Weichai Power Co 2338 | HK$36.40 | HK$28.46 | -22% |
| Geely Automobile Holdings 80175 | HK$15.50 | HK$19.14 | +23% |
| Bajaj Auto Limited BAJAJAUTO | ₹11,700 | ₹4,574 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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