Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · MX · Market cap 17.1B MXN (≈ $1.0B) · ISIN MX01VO000009

What is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4.18 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7.13 MXN – 45.81 MXN · fair‑value band 2.72 MXN – 4.18 MXN · the 11.34 MXN price screens above the 3.46 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) currently trades at 11.34 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.46 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 227.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3.16 MXN per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the 11.34 MXN price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.13 MXN, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of 3.1B MXN at a net margin of −4.0%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −47.6%. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 2.72 MXN (bear case) to 4.18 MXN (bull case); at 11.34 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at −69%, VOLARA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (3.16 MXN) versus Asset-Based (0.1500 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally.

Full company description

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America. It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $45.1B in FY2021, a compound −49.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$104M in FY2025.

VOLARA screens 228% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

Peer Group

Airlines · 57 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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