United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $39.1B · ISIN US9100471096
What is United Airlines Holdings Inc really worth?
United Airlines Holdings Inc
UAL · US
A solid business, trading 20% below our fair value of $136.50.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from $175.62 to $136.50 (−22.3%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −18.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.20 – $136.11 · fair‑value band $102.38 – $179.73 · the $108.66 price screens below the $136.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) currently trades at $108.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $136.50, implying the stock looks roughly 20.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $749.83 per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the $108.66 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $31.55, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, United Airlines Holdings Inc generated revenue of $60.5B at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.7%. Net debt stands at $25.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $102.38 (bear case) to $179.73 (bull case); at $108.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 26%, UAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.57 per share, which is 5.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($749.83) versus Asset-Based ($31.55). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets.
Full company description
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. The company also offers ground handling, flight academy, frequent flyer award non-travel redemptions, and maintenance services for third parties. In addition, it provides freight and mail transportation services to commercial businesses, freight forwarders, logistics firms, and national postal services, as well as loyalty programs. The company distributes its products through direct channels, such as the Company's website and the Company's mobile app; and traditional travel agencies, online travel agencies, and other intermediaries. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
United Airlines Holdings Inc reported revenue of $59.1B in FY2025 versus $24.6B in FY2021, a compound +24.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- United Airlines (UAL): A321XLR Expansion Strengthens the International Growth Story
- United Airlines (UAL) CEO’s 2027 Outlook: Strong Demand and Gradually Rising Fares
- United Airlines (UAL) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know
- Airfares Are Up 25.5% and United Says It’s Set To Increase More. Is UAL the Only Cheap Airline Stock Left?
Peer Group
Airlines · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $80.07 | $115.82 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $38.73 | $14.76 | −62% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,166 | ₹3,073 | −41% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.50 | $106.79 | +103% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.08 | ¥1.28 | −75% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.99 | €18.94 | +137% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.57 | ¥14.20 | +298% |
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