EN DE

Air China Ltd Class A (601111) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 122B CNY (≈ $18.1B) · ISIN CNE000001NN0

What is Air China Ltd Class A really worth?

AC Air China Ltd Class A 601111 · SHG
Price¥5.86
Fair Value¥9.38
Upside+60.0%
Quality30/100

Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of ¥9.38.

Watch Air China Ltd Class A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +19.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range ¥2.24 to ¥16.51
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range ¥2.24 – ¥16.51

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥7.16 to ¥9.38 (+30.9%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −5.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥2.24 to ¥16.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥11.80 ¥5.73 Fair Value ¥9.38 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.73 – ¥11.80 · fair‑value band ¥2.24 – ¥16.51 · the ¥5.86 price screens below the ¥9.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Air China Ltd Class A (601111) currently trades at ¥5.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.38, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥21.54 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥5.86 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.83, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Air China Ltd Class A generated revenue of 176B CNY at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at 228B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.24 (bear case) to ¥16.51 (bull case); at ¥5.86, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 59% fair-value upside, at 60%, 601111 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0747 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence ¥15.73 ¥29.81 ¥52.79 77
Growth DCF ¥15.83 ¥29.38 ¥51.29 75
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥11.82 ¥22.41 ¥35.09 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence ¥15.73 ¥29.81 ¥52.79 77
Owner Earnings ¥4.02 ¥10.12 ¥20.09 71
5Y Revenue Exit ¥10.94 ¥20.69 ¥33.36 70
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥11.82 ¥22.41 ¥35.09 73
10Y Revenue Exit ¥11.98 ¥21.54 ¥35.04 65
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.00 ¥22.77 ¥36.41 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.35 ¥6.97 ¥11.05 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.35 ¥5.88 ¥7.31 66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥11.40 ¥16.85 ¥22.30 66
EV/Revenue ¥8.95 ¥14.91 ¥20.87 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.37 ¥1.83 ¥2.74 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥15.83 ¥29.38 ¥51.29 75
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.94 ¥20.67 ¥32.60 71

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥21.54) versus Asset-Based (¥1.83). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

Notify me when 601111 reaches fair value

Put 601111 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 53.9 as of Jul 16, 2026
P/S ratio 0.69 TTM
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1100 price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.9
Dividend yield 5.0%
Net margin −1.0% FY2025
Return on equity 2.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) −5.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 176B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.3% 3y avg +48.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −30.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 26.5B CNY FY2025
Net debt 228B CNY FY2025 · ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 5
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 21
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services.

Full company description

Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services. It is also involved in the import and export trading business; wholesale and import of aircraft parts; aircraft engine maintenance; aviation information technology consulting; and provision of cabin, airline catering, air ticketing and catering, human resources, aircraft overhaul and maintenance, and financial services. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Air China Ltd Class A reported revenue of 171B CNY in FY2025 versus 74.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
171B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+48.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.8%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +23.2%/yr
FY21 74.5B CNY
FY22 52.9B CNY
FY23 141B CNY
FY24 167B CNY
FY25 171B CNY
Net income
FY21 −16.6B CNY
FY22 −38.6B CNY
FY23 −1.0B CNY
FY24 −237M CNY
FY25 −1.8B CNY

Watch 601111: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air China Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601111

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Airlines · 57 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 2.18× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 53.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.86× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.69× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 7.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 56
FUTURE57 · sector 51
PAST8 · sector 48
HEALTH0 · sector 69
DIVIDEND100 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $80.07 $115.82 +45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $110.60 $175.62 +59%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $38.73 $14.76 −62%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,166 ₹3,073 −41%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.09 SGD 7.89 SGD +11%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.50 $106.79 +103%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.08 ¥1.28 −75%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.99 €18.94 +137%
China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 ¥3.57 ¥14.20 +298%

Compare Air China Ltd Class A with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator (Options) Splits an option premium into intrinsic and extrinsic (time) value. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is Air China Ltd Class A (601111) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.38 versus a price of ¥5.86, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601111?
Our model-based fair value for Air China Ltd Class A is ¥9.38 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.86.
What is the quality score of 601111?
Air China Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Air China Ltd Class A (601111)?
Air China Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 176B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601111?
The net profit margin of Air China Ltd Class A is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Air China Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Air China Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.02% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
Free · no account needed

Watch Air China Ltd Class A in the live analysis

One click puts Air China Ltd Class A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.