Air China Limited (601111) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 122B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥7.16 to ¥9.50 (+32.7%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +0.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥2.27 to ¥16.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.84 – ¥11.80 · fair‑value band ¥2.27 – ¥16.74 · the ¥5.94 price screens below the ¥9.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Air China Limited (601111) currently trades at ¥5.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.50, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Air China Limited generated revenue of 176B CNY at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at 228B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.27 (bear case) to ¥16.74 (bull case); at ¥5.94, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 60%, 601111 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥21.54) versus Asset-Based (¥1.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services.
Full company description
Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services. It is also involved in the import and export trading business; wholesale and import of aircraft parts; aircraft engine maintenance; aviation information technology consulting; and provision of cabin, airline catering, air ticketing and catering, human resources, aircraft overhaul and maintenance, and financial services. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Air China Limited reported revenue of ¥171B in FY2025 versus ¥74.5B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥1.8B in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Airbus Secures $17.8 Billion China Jet Orders Before Farnborough Air Show
- Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) Lands Multi Billion Dollar China Jet Orders
- Airbus Wins Major Order from Air China to Firm Regional Hold
- China's Big Three Airlines Trail Cathay by Nearly 50 Percentage Points
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $89.93 | $115.82 | +29% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $125.12 | $175.62 | +40% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $44.98 | $14.76 | -67% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,333 | ₹3,073 | -42% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.07 | ¥1.28 | -75% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.57 | ¥14.20 | +298% |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 | HK$14.80 | HK$31.02 | +110% |
| Hainan Airlines Holding 600221 | ¥1.34 | ¥0.9400 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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