Air China Ltd Class A (601111) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 122B CNY (≈ $18.1B) · ISIN CNE000001NN0
What is Air China Ltd Class A really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of ¥9.38.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥7.16 to ¥9.38 (+30.9%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −5.3% over the past month.
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What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥2.24 to ¥16.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.73 – ¥11.80 · fair‑value band ¥2.24 – ¥16.51 · the ¥5.86 price screens below the ¥9.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Air China Ltd Class A (601111) currently trades at ¥5.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.38, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥21.54 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥5.86 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.83, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Air China Ltd Class A generated revenue of 176B CNY at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at 228B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.24 (bear case) to ¥16.51 (bull case); at ¥5.86, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 59% fair-value upside, at 60%, 601111 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0747 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥21.54) versus Asset-Based (¥1.83). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services.
Full company description
Air China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger, air cargo, and airline-related services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in Airline Operations and Other Operations segments. The company provides aircraft engineering and airport ground handling services. It is also involved in the import and export trading business; wholesale and import of aircraft parts; aircraft engine maintenance; aviation information technology consulting; and provision of cabin, airline catering, air ticketing and catering, human resources, aircraft overhaul and maintenance, and financial services. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Air China Ltd Class A reported revenue of 171B CNY in FY2025 versus 74.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8B CNY in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- China's C919 jet makes first international commercial flight
- Airbus Secures $17.8 Billion China Jet Orders Before Farnborough Air Show
- Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) Lands Multi Billion Dollar China Jet Orders
- Airbus Wins Major Order from Air China to Firm Regional Hold
Peer Group
Airlines · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $80.07 | $115.82 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $110.60 | $175.62 | +59% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $38.73 | $14.76 | −62% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,166 | ₹3,073 | −41% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.50 | $106.79 | +103% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.08 | ¥1.28 | −75% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.99 | €18.94 | +137% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.57 | ¥14.20 | +298% |
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