Vista Energy, S.A. (VIST) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.3B
Vista Energy, S.A.
VIST · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 11% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($42.98 to $236.20). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from $42.98 (bear) to $236.20 (bull), base $59.05. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 42/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.66 – $79.25 · fair‑value band $42.98 – $236.20 · the $66.19 price screens above the $59.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vista Energy, S.A. (VIST) currently trades at $66.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.05, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vista Energy, S.A. generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 25.7%. Revenue grew 97.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.1%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $42.98 (bear case) to $236.20 (bull case); at $66.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -11%, VIST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($265.93) versus Asset-Based ($15.17). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico.
Full company description
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vista Energy, S.A. reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $652M in FY2021, a compound +39.6%/yr. Reported net income was $719M in FY2025, compounding +94.1%/yr from FY2021.
VIST screens 11% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Atlassian Corporation, Wendy's, Vista Corp, First Solar, Airbnb & more
- Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Vista Energy Stock?
- Is Vista Energy Stock Still Attractive After Its Latest Earnings Miss?
- Vista Energy (BMV:VISTA A) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift As Analysts Add New Interests
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 314 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 48/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $125.92 | $90.15 | -28% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $201.71 | $105.24 | -48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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