Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.3B · ISIN US92837L1098
What is Vista Oil Gas ADR really worth?
Vista Oil Gas ADR
VIST · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 26% above our fair value of $59.05.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +12.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($42.98 to $236.20). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.38 – $79.25 · fair‑value band $42.98 – $236.20 · the $74.61 price screens above the $59.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) currently trades at $74.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.05, implying the stock looks roughly 26.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $265.93 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $74.61 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.17, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Vista Oil Gas ADR generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 25.7%. Revenue grew 97.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.1%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $42.98 (bear case) to $236.20 (bull case); at $74.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 136% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −21%, VIST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.16 per share, which is 8.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($265.93) versus Asset-Based ($15.17). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico.
Full company description
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vista Oil Gas ADR reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $652M in FY2021, a compound +39.6%/yr. Reported net income was $719M in FY2025, compounding +94.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
VIST screens 26% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Billionaire Peter Thiel Bought a 1% Stake in Vista Energy. What This Means for VIST Stock.
- VIST Stock Jumps as Peter Thiel Reveals Stake in Vista Energy
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 48/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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