Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Upstart Holdings Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.0B · ISIN US91680M1071
At a glance
UHUpstart Holdings IncUPST · US
Price$25.10
Fair Value$6.19
Upside−75.4%
Quality34/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 306% above our fair value of $6.19.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Upstart Holdings Inc is $6.19 per share against a price of $25.10, so the fair value sits 75% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +35.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.2% net margin
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/13)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 5 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $4.64 to $7.74
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −16.0% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.10 – $390.00 · fair‑value band $4.64 – $7.74 · the $25.10 price screens above the $6.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) currently trades at $25.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.19, implying the stock looks roughly 305.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $19.60 per share, and 1 of the 9 models we run sit above the $25.10 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.33, and 8 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Upstart Holdings Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 44.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at $1.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: $4.64 (bear) to $7.74 (bull), the price of $25.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −75%, UPST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2853 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence$6.58$6.82$7.0574
Owner Earningsn/a$9.41$32.3271
DDM Multi-Stage$0.7700$1.33$1.6365
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earningsn/a$9.41$32.3271
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$3.81$26.56$37.2761
Lynch FV$13.72$19.60$25.4859
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$0.7700$1.54$2.3364
DDM Multi-Stage$0.7700$1.33$1.6365
Multiples
P/E Multiple$5.46$7.28$9.1063
P/B Multiple$7.14$9.52$11.9055
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.17$5.59$8.3554
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence$6.58$6.82$7.0574
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($19.60) versus Dividend Discount ($1.33). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio61.2
P/S ratio3.05P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.4100price ÷ EPS = P/E 61.2
Dividend yield0.3%payout 16.6%
Net margin5.0%FY2025
Return on equity7.0%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)−2.7%avg 5y
Operating margin0.9%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$1.2BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+44.6%3y avg +8.5%
EPS growth (YoY)+209%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$166MFY2025
Net debt$1.2BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality34/100
Of which business quality 33
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8
Profitability35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth92
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance0
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.
Full company description
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Upstart Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $849M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was $53.6M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.1B
Latest YoY
+58.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+35.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+44.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−9.5%
Dividend yield0.3%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.0% (2020) → 5.1% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop301% (2023) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
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Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 33
FUTURE100· sector 41
PAST28· sector 32
HEALTH0· sector 59
DIVIDEND5· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
Is Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.19 versus a price of $25.10, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UPST?
Our model-based fair value for Upstart Holdings Inc is $6.19 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.10.
What is the quality score of UPST?
Upstart Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.19 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.64, optimistic scenario $7.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Upstart Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.19, about −75% upside versus a price of $25.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.64, optimistic scenario $7.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Upstart Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UPST?
The net profit margin of Upstart Holdings Inc is about 4.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Upstart Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Upstart Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Upstart Holdings Inc it is $6.19 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of $25.10. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Upstart Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, UPST trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.10, fair value $6.19, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.19). For Upstart Holdings Inc the two are $18.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Upstart Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Upstart Holdings Inc at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is $25.10; our models calculate a fair value of $6.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPST?
Our models span a range for Upstart Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $4.64, base $6.19, optimistic $7.74 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price $25.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UPST?
Upstart Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 61.2 (as of Sep 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 41.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Upstart Holdings Inc (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 2.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UPST from its 52-week high?
Upstart Holdings Inc trades at $25.10, about 71% below its 52-week high of $87.30 and 5% above the low of $23.97 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Upstart Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Upstart Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price $25.10, calculated fair value $6.19 (−75%), Quality Score 34/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPST calculated?
We run Upstart Holdings Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Upstart Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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Upstart Holdings Inc
UPST · US