PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $41.8B · ISIN US70450Y1038

What is PayPal Holdings Inc really worth?

PayPal Holdings Inc PYPL · US

Price$56.82

Fair Value$77.12

Upside+35.7%

Quality73/100

A solid business, trading 26% below our fair value of $77.12.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.1 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 15.0% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Wide moat 69/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)

!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100

For context

·0.74% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range $57.29 – $146.46

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −2.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The rarer combination: high quality (73/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
A fairly wide model range ($57.29 to $146.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $38.83 – $305.88 · fair‑value band $57.29 – $146.46 · the $56.82 price screens below the $77.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) currently trades at $56.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $77.12, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $104.37 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $56.82 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.39, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, PayPal Holdings Inc generated revenue of $33.7B at a net margin of 15.0%. Revenue grew 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.1%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $57.29 (bear case) to $146.46 (bull case); at $56.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at 36%, PYPL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.30 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Growth DCF best evidence $77.27 $134.37 $229.71 76

Owner Earnings $74.39 $133.27 $233.70 74

Rev-Margin DCF $58.63 $98.75 $149.80 71

All 13 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings $74.39 $133.27 $233.70 74

5Y P/E Exit $59.52 $101.04 $147.41 70

10Y P/E Exit $64.98 $104.37 $157.95 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $40.34 $177.61 $243.12 64

Lynch FV $45.93 $65.61 $85.30 61

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $1.35 $2.81 $4.46 66

DDM Multi-Stage $1.35 $2.37 $2.95 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $57.84 $77.12 $96.40 63

P/B Multiple $24.11 $32.15 $40.19 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $11.48 $15.39 $22.96 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF best evidence $77.27 $134.37 $229.71 76

Rev-Margin DCF $58.63 $98.75 $149.80 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income $43.01 $64.51 $564.12 64

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($104.37) versus Dividend Discount ($2.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.7

P/S ratio 1.68 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) $5.33 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7

Dividend yield 0.7% payout 7.9%

Net margin 15.8% FY2025

Return on equity 25.1% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% avg 5y

Operating margin 18.0% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) $33.7B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +7.2% 3y avg +6.4%

EPS growth (YoY) −6.2%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow $5.6B FY2025

Net debt $1.9B FY2025 · ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 53

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 57

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 69

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 59

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 98

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 35

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 56

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 30

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide.

Full company description

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PayPal Holdings Inc reported revenue of $33.2B in FY2025 versus $25.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.2B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

$33.2B

Latest YoY

+4.3%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+9.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+14.6%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+14.6% (13.9 + 0.7)

Revenue +6.9%/yr

FY21 $25.4B

FY22 $27.5B

FY23 $29.8B

FY24 $31.8B

FY25 $33.2B

Net income +5.8%/yr

FY21 $4.2B

FY22 $2.4B

FY23 $4.2B

FY24 $4.1B

FY25 $5.2B

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +20.4 % p.a.

Revenue per share +16.7 %

of which total revenue +14.5 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %

EBIT margin +1.4 %

Tax rate +1.6 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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PayPal Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$77.12 +26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PayPal Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PYPL

Peer Group

Credit Services · 324 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +36% · Above median

Return on equity (TTM) 25% · Top 25%

Return on assets 5% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 15% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Below median

Revenue growth 7% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median

Debt / equity 0.49× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.7× · Cheaper than median

P/B 2.06× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 1.24× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 7.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.85× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE81 · sector 36

FUTURE36 · sector 40

PAST100 · sector 32

HEALTH75 · sector 59

DIVIDEND15 · sector 55

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Visa Inc V	$379.66	$198.27	−48%
Mastercard Incorporated MA	$591.73	$221.87	−63%
American Express Company AXP	$334.16	$206.40	−38%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF	$215.67	$117.51	−46%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE	₹1,093	₹397.70	−64%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN	₹1,134	₹553.82	−51%
Synchrony Financial, SYF	$78.05	$137.28	+76%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI	$18.06	$5.02	−72%
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN	₹1,866	₹796.47	−57%
Tata Capital Limited TATACAP	₹375.70	₹149.40	−60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $77.12 versus a price of $56.82, about +36% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of PYPL?

Our model-based fair value for PayPal Holdings Inc is $77.12 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.82.

What is the quality score of PYPL?

PayPal Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)?

PayPal Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of PYPL?

The net profit margin of PayPal Holdings Inc is about 15.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does PayPal Holdings Inc pay a dividend?

PayPal Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.74% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).

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