American Express Company (AXP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $242B · ISIN US0258161092
What is American Express Company really worth?
American Express Company
AXP · US
A solid business, but trading 60% above our fair value of $206.40.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −4.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($154.80 to $391.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $128.43 – $381.78 · fair‑value band $154.80 – $391.82 · the $329.82 price screens above the $206.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
American Express Company (AXP) currently trades at $329.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $206.40, implying the stock looks roughly 59.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $292.96 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $329.82 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.87, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, American Express Company generated revenue of $68.8B at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.4%. Net debt stands at $10.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $154.80 (bear case) to $391.82 (bull case); at $329.82, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −37%, AXP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $8.55 per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($292.96) versus Asset-Based ($32.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S.
Full company description
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. The company offers credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, and lifestyle and expense management products and services; and banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending. It also provides merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, as well as network services. The company offers its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers and business partners, in-house sales teams, direct mail, telephone, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Express Company reported revenue of $80.5B in FY2025 versus $44.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $10.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.3 % · buybacks/dilution +3.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AXP screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Peer Group
Credit Services · 324 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $379.66 | $198.27 | −48% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $591.73 | $221.87 | −63% |
| Capital One Financial Corporation COF | $215.67 | $117.51 | −46% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,093 | ₹397.70 | −64% |
| PayPal Holdings PYPL | $61.47 | $77.12 | +25% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,134 | ₹553.82 | −51% |
| Synchrony Financial, SYF | $78.05 | $137.28 | +76% |
| SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI | $18.06 | $5.02 | −72% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,866 | ₹796.47 | −57% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹375.70 | ₹149.40 | −60% |
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