Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $124B · ISIN US14040H1059
What is Capital One Financial Corporation really worth?
Capital One Financial Corporation
COF · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 121% above our fair value of $99.88.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −0.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($99.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($47.28 to $99.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $81.04 – $255.86 · fair‑value band $47.28 – $99.88 · the $220.50 price screens above the $99.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) currently trades at $220.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $99.88, implying the stock looks roughly 120.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $270.85 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $220.50 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $43.17, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Capital One Financial Corporation generated revenue of $36.3B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 46.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $47.28 (bear case) to $99.88 (bull case); at $220.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −55%, COF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2990 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($270.85) versus Earnings-Based ($43.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking.
Full company description
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, time deposits, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include credit card and personal loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; bank lending; and provides advisory, capital markets, net interchange, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Capital One Financial Corporation reported revenue of $69.3B in FY2025 versus $32.0B in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −33.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.5 % · buybacks/dilution +2.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
COF screens 121% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Investors May Respond To Capital One Financial (COF) Extending Capital One Arena Naming Rights in Washington
- Capital One (COF) Stock Has Strong Returns But Fair Value Looks Higher
- Capital One Financial (COF) Extends Arena Naming Rights For 20 Years
Peer Group
Credit Services · 324 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $379.66 | $198.27 | −48% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $591.73 | $221.87 | −63% |
| American Express Company AXP | $334.16 | $206.40 | −38% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,093 | ₹397.70 | −64% |
| PayPal Holdings PYPL | $61.47 | $77.12 | +25% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,134 | ₹553.82 | −51% |
| Synchrony Financial, SYF | $78.05 | $137.28 | +76% |
| SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI | $18.06 | $5.02 | −72% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,866 | ₹796.47 | −57% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹375.70 | ₹149.40 | −60% |
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