The Trade Desk, Inc (TTD) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $9.3B
The Trade Desk, Inc
TTD · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $20.76 to $29.07 (+40.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −23.1% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 100% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.39 – $139.51 · fair‑value band $21.80 – $36.52 · the $14.56 price screens below the $29.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Trade Desk, Inc (TTD) currently trades at $14.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.07, implying the stock looks roughly 99.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Trade Desk, Inc generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $222M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.80 (bear case) to $36.52 (bull case); at $14.56, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at 100%, TTD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($48.16) versus Dividend Discount ($1.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers …
Full company description
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Trade Desk, Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $443M in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +39.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch TTD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- What Could Industry Rivals Mean For Trade Desk (TTD) Now?
- Is TTD Worth Buying as Cheap Valuation Clashes With Execution Risk?
- TTD Falls 23.5% in a Week Amid Macro Pressure and Execution Woes
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $303.76 | $252.45 | -17% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €99.98 | €146.36 | +46% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $85.51 | $99.84 | +17% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.29 | ¥5.71 | +8% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.00 | €20.99 | -13% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥37.40 | ¥5.62 | -85% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.04 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
| Affle 3i Limited AFFLE | ₹1,643 | ₹611.48 | -63% |
| Guangdong Advertising Group 002400 | ¥7.33 | ¥1.14 | -84% |
| Zhewen Interactive Group 600986 | ¥8.24 | ¥1.47 | -82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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