Trade Desk Inc (TTD) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $9.3B · ISIN US88339J1051
What is Trade Desk Inc really worth?
Trade Desk Inc
TTD · US
A strong business, trading 48% below our fair value of $29.07.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −22.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.03 – $139.51 · fair‑value band $21.80 – $36.52 · the $15.09 price screens below the $29.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Trade Desk Inc (TTD) currently trades at $15.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.07, implying the stock looks roughly 48.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $48.16 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $15.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.90, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trade Desk Inc generated revenue of $3.0B at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $222M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.80 (bear case) to $36.52 (bull case); at $15.09, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 93%, TTD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5979 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($48.16) versus Dividend Discount ($1.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers …
Full company description
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trade Desk Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $443M in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +39.6 % · buybacks/dilution −6.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch TTD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Trade Desk Falls 4% on 15% Workforce Cut; AppLovin Ascends 3%, Magnite Pulls Back
- TTD Stock Plunges 60% Year to Date: Time to Cut Losses and Exit?
- Trade Desk to Cut Workforce by 15%. It May Not Be Enough to Turn the Stock Around.
- Trade Desk Stock Rises After Company Unveils 15% Workforce Cut
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 195 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $317.76 | $252.45 | −21% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €101.65 | €146.36 | +44% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $86.09 | $99.84 | +16% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥4.97 | ¥5.71 | +15% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.37 | ¥1.44 | −89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.00 | €20.99 | −13% |
| WPP plc WPP | $26.87 | $19.05 | −29% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥37.40 | ¥5.62 | −85% |
| Magnite, Inc MGNI | $24.53 | $12.18 | −50% |
| Affle (India) Limited AFFLE | ₹1,711 | ₹591.41 | −65% |
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