Applovin Corp (APP) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $170B · ISIN US03831W1080
What is Applovin Corp really worth?
Applovin Corp
APP · US
A strong business, but trading 24% above our fair value of $252.45.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −25.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 92/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($175.60 to $600.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.30 – $733.60 · fair‑value band $175.60 – $600.63 · the $313.58 price screens above the $252.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Applovin Corp (APP) currently trades at $313.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $252.45, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 92/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $551.10 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the $313.58 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $98.60, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Applovin Corp generated revenue of $6.2B at a net margin of 64.3%. Revenue grew 59.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 266.4%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $175.60 (bear case) to $600.63 (bull case); at $313.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −19%, APP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.58 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($551.10) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1500). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 86 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 3
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps.
Full company description
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps. The company offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers to automate, optimize, and manage marketing efforts; MAX, an in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction; Adjust, a measurement and analytics marketing platform; and Wurl, a connected TV platform, which distributes streaming video for content companies, provides advertising and publishing solutions. It serves individuals, small and independent businesses, enterprises, advertisers and advertising networks, mobile app publishers, and indie studio developers. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Applovin Corp reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding +211.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
APP screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Publicis Groupe S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AppLovin’s Algorithmic Moat Is Vulnerable, Says Investor: Why $1.9B Quarterly Revenue Isn’t Enough to Justify a Buy
- Magnite Rallies 6%, Trade Desk Climbs 5%, AppLovin Barely Budges: Is Agentic Ad-Tech Broadening Out?
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 195 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €101.65 | €146.36 | +44% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $86.09 | $99.84 | +16% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥4.97 | ¥5.71 | +15% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $13.57 | $29.07 | +114% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.37 | ¥1.44 | −89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €24.00 | €20.99 | −13% |
| WPP plc WPP | $26.87 | $19.05 | −29% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥37.40 | ¥5.62 | −85% |
| Magnite, Inc MGNI | $24.53 | $12.18 | −50% |
| Affle (India) Limited AFFLE | ₹1,711 | ₹591.41 | −65% |
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