Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.5B · ISIN US90041L1052

What is Turning Point Brands Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($70.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($25.43 to $70.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.04 – $142.70 · fair‑value band $25.43 – $70.15 · the $76.94 price screens above the $44.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) currently trades at $76.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.89, implying the stock looks roughly 71.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $51.05 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $76.94 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.26, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Turning Point Brands Inc generated revenue of $481M at a net margin of 11.5%. Revenue grew 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.5%. Net debt stands at $86.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $25.43 (bear case) to $70.15 (bull case); at $76.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −42%, TPB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.78 per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($51.05) versus Dividend Discount ($3.64). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Zig-Zag Products and Stoker's Products.

Full company description

Turning Point Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Zig-Zag Products and Stoker's Products. Its Zig-Zag Products segment markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, finished cigars, make-your-own cigar wraps, and related products, as well as lighters and other accessories under the Zig-Zag brand. The Stoker's Products segment manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco and loose-leaf chewing tobacco products under the Stoker's, FRE, Beech-Nut, Durango, Trophy, and Wind River brands. In addition, the company markets and distributes cannabis accessories and tobacco products. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and retail merchants in the independent and chain convenience stores, tobacco outlets, food stores, mass merchandising, drug store, and non-traditional retail channels. The company was formerly known as North Atlantic Holding Company, Inc. and changed its name to Turning Point Brands, Inc. in November 2015. Turning Point Brands, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Turning Point Brands Inc reported revenue of $463M in FY2025 versus $445M in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $58.2M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.

TPB screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Philip Morris International Inc →

Peer Group

Tobacco · 36 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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