Timken Company (TKR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $9.7B · ISIN US8873891043
What is Timken Company really worth?
Timken Company
TKR · US
A solid business, but trading 87% above our fair value of $64.85.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $66.33 to $64.85 (−2.2%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −8.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($100.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($37.85 to $100.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.46 – $145.32 · fair‑value band $37.85 – $100.48 · the $121.09 price screens above the $64.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Timken Company (TKR) currently trades at $121.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.85, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $84.02 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $121.09 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.04, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Timken Company generated revenue of $4.7B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.85 (bear case) to $100.48 (bull case); at $121.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −46%, TKR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.07 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($84.02) versus Dividend Discount ($18.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
Notify me when TKR reaches fair value
Put TKR on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion.
Full company description
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion. The Engineered Bearings segment provides various bearing products, including tapered, spherical, and cylindrical roller bearings; plain bearings, metal-polymer bearings, and rod end bearings; radial, angular, and precision ball bearings; thrust and specialty ball bearings; journal bearings; and housed or mounted bearings. This segment serves wind energy, agriculture, construction, food and beverage, metals and mining, automotive and truck, aerospace, rail, and other industries under the Timken, GGB, and Fafnir brands. The Industrial Motion segment offers a portfolio of engineered products, such as industrial drives, automatic lubrication systems, linear motion products and systems, chains, belts, couplings, filtration systems, seals, and industrial clutches and brakes, as well as industrial drivetrain and bearing repairing services. This segment serves a range of industries comprising solar energy, automation, construction, agriculture and turf, passenger rail, marine, aerospace, packaging and logistics, medical, and others under the Philadelphia Gear, Cone Drive, Rollon, Nadella, Groeneveld, BEKA, Diamond, Drives, Timken Belts, Spinea, Des-Case, Lagersmit, Lovejoy, CGI, and PT Tech brands. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Timken Company reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $288M in FY2025, compounding −6.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.5 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TKR screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Techtronic Industries Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Timken to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
- Belden, Timken, ArcBest, Acuity Brands, and VSE Corporation Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know
- 5 Insightful Analyst Questions From Timken’s Q2 Earnings Call
Peer Group
Tools & Accessories · 122 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Techtronic Industries Company 0669 | HK$138.50 | HK$78.56 | −43% |
| Snap-on Incorporated SNA | $391.86 | $344.67 | −12% |
| RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC | $488.69 | $179.94 | −63% |
| Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO | $284.90 | $151.86 | −47% |
| Stanley Black & Decker, Inc SWK | $99.24 | $52.80 | −47% |
| AB SKF (publ) SKFB | kr 275.40 | kr 180.34 | −35% |
| The Toro Company TTC | $92.37 | $69.71 | −25% |
| SFS Group SFSN | CHF 131.40 | CHF 118.30 | −10% |
| Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 | ¥30.51 | ¥30.38 | +0% |
| Hiwin Technologies Corporation 2049 | 381.00 TWD | 73.32 TWD | −81% |
Compare Timken Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Timken Company (TKR) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of TKR?
What is the quality score of TKR?
What is the revenue of Timken Company (TKR)?
What is the net profit margin of TKR?
Does Timken Company pay a dividend?
Watch Timken Company in the live analysis
One click puts Timken Company on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.