Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $13.7B · ISIN US8545021011
What is Stanley Black & Decker Inc really worth?
Stanley Black & Decker Inc
SWK · US
A solid business, but trading 83% above our fair value of $52.80.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −5.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($89.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($32.62 to $89.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.72 – $177.18 · fair‑value band $32.62 – $89.42 · the $96.50 price screens above the $52.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) currently trades at $96.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.80, implying the stock looks roughly 82.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $54.29 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $96.50 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.48, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Stanley Black & Decker Inc generated revenue of $15.2B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at $5.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.62 (bear case) to $89.42 (bull case); at $96.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −45%, SWK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($54.29) versus Earnings-Based ($14.48). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia.
Full company description
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its Tools & Outdoor segment offers professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, including drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, concrete prep and placement tools, and sanders; pneumatic tools and fasteners, such as nail guns, nails, staplers and staples, and concrete and masonry anchors; corded and cordless electric power tools; household power tools, hand-held vacuums, and small appliances; leveling and layout tools, planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, saws, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools; drill, screwdriver, router bits, abrasives, saw blades, and threading products; tool boxes, sawhorses, medical cabinets, and engineered storage solutions; and electric and gas-powered lawn and garden products. This segment sells its products under the DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, CUB ADET, STANLEY, BLACK+DECKER, and HUSTLER brands through retailers, third-party distributors, independent dealers, and a direct sales force. Its Industrial segment provides threaded fasteners, blind rivets and tools, blind inserts and tools, drawn arc weld studs and systems, engineered plastic and mechanical fasteners, self-piercing riveting systems, precision nut running systems, micro fasteners, high-strength structural fasteners, axel swage, latches, heat shields, pins, couplings, fitting, and other engineered products. This segment sells its products through direct sales force and third-party distributors to the automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, aerospace, and other industries. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stanley Black & Decker Inc reported revenue of $15.1B in FY2025 versus $15.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $402M in FY2025, compounding −30.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SWK screens 83% overvalued. Compare with Techtronic Industries Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Stanley Black & Decker Announces Agreement to Sell Excel Industries to Bad Boy Mowers
- Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Lincoln Electric, Stanley Black & Decker, Core & Main and Kennametal
Peer Group
Tools & Accessories · 122 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Techtronic Industries Company 0669 | HK$138.50 | HK$78.56 | −43% |
| Snap-on Incorporated SNA | $391.86 | $344.67 | −12% |
| RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC | $488.69 | $179.94 | −63% |
| Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO | $284.90 | $151.86 | −47% |
| AB SKF (publ) SKFB | kr 275.40 | kr 180.34 | −35% |
| The Timken Company TKR | $130.25 | $64.85 | −50% |
| The Toro Company TTC | $92.37 | $69.71 | −25% |
| SFS Group SFSN | CHF 131.40 | CHF 118.30 | −10% |
| Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 | ¥30.51 | ¥30.38 | +0% |
| Hiwin Technologies Corporation 2049 | 381.00 TWD | 73.32 TWD | −81% |
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