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Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TW · Market cap 114B TWD (≈ $3.6B) · ISIN TW0002049004

What is Hiwin Technologies Corp really worth?

HT Hiwin Technologies Corp 2049 · TW
Price363.00 TWD
Fair Value73.32 TWD
Upside−79.8%
Quality60/100

A solid business, but trading 395% above our fair value of 73.32 TWD.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.5% net margin
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 11 out of 100

For context

·0.55% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range 54.99 TWD – 91.65 TWD

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −0.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (91.65 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

409.50 TWD 154.22 TWD Fair Value 73.32 TWD Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 154.22 TWD – 409.50 TWD · fair‑value band 54.99 TWD – 91.65 TWD · the 363.00 TWD price screens above the 73.32 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) currently trades at 363.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 73.32 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 395.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 80.79 TWD per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 363.00 TWD price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 29.28 TWD, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hiwin Technologies Corp generated revenue of 24.3B TWD at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. Net debt stands at 2.6B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 54.99 TWD (bear case) to 91.65 TWD (bull case); at 363.00 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −80%, 2049 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1.57 TWD per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 51.45 TWD 79.14 TWD 121.65 TWD 77
Growth DCF 52.24 TWD 76.67 TWD 111.82 TWD 76
EPV 37.29 TWD 43.07 TWD 48.13 TWD 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 51.45 TWD 79.14 TWD 121.65 TWD 77
Owner Earnings 38.65 TWD 59.09 TWD 90.46 TWD 73
5Y Revenue Exit 45.89 TWD 71.11 TWD 103.18 TWD 70
5Y EBITDA Exit 83.71 TWD 142.14 TWD 210.89 TWD 72
5Y P/E Exit 59.07 TWD 95.86 TWD 134.57 TWD 68
10Y Revenue Exit 46.15 TWD 69.70 TWD 101.19 TWD 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 71.58 TWD 119.12 TWD 183.72 TWD 65
10Y P/E Exit 55.85 TWD 86.92 TWD 125.24 TWD 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 29.33 TWD 93.11 TWD 124.08 TWD 62
Lynch FV 20.50 TWD 29.28 TWD 38.07 TWD 59
PEG = 1.0 20.50 TWD 29.28 TWD 38.07 TWD 55
EPV 37.29 TWD 43.07 TWD 48.13 TWD 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 22.04 TWD 45.82 TWD 72.69 TWD 64
DDM Multi-Stage 22.04 TWD 36.77 TWD 48.09 TWD 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple 67.93 TWD 90.57 TWD 113.21 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 54.99 TWD 73.32 TWD 91.65 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 54.99 TWD 73.32 TWD 91.65 TWD 55
EV/EBIT 61.80 TWD 81.54 TWD 101.28 TWD 66
EV/EBITDA 112.85 TWD 149.60 TWD 186.36 TWD 67
EV/Revenue 44.85 TWD 62.96 TWD 81.07 TWD 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 52.78 TWD 70.72 TWD 105.56 TWD 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 52.24 TWD 76.67 TWD 111.82 TWD 76
Rev-Margin DCF 45.89 TWD 71.23 TWD 100.56 TWD 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income 79.29 TWD 79.27 TWD 72.46 TWD 74
ROIC Compounder 37.29 TWD 43.07 TWD 48.13 TWD 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 56.56 TWD 80.79 TWD 105.03 TWD 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (80.79 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (29.28 TWD). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 84.2
P/S ratio 5.30 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 4.31 TWD price ÷ EPS = P/E 84.2
Dividend yield 0.6% payout 46.4%
Net margin 6.3% FY2025
Return on equity 3.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 24.3B TWD TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.0% 3y avg −6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +39.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 1.5B TWD FY2025
Net debt 2.6B TWD FY2025 · ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Hiwin Technologies Corporation manufactures and sells motion control and systematic technology products in Taiwan, China, Germany, the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through Linear Guideways, Ballscrews, and Other segments.

Full company description

Hiwin Technologies Corporation manufactures and sells motion control and systematic technology products in Taiwan, China, Germany, the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through Linear Guideways, Ballscrews, and Other segments. It offers ballscrews, Ball Spline, linear guideways, bearings, DATORKER strain wave gear, end effectors, torque motor rotary tables, and semiconductor subsystem, as well as single and multi-axis robots; and medical robots and equipment. The company also provides ball screws, linear guideways, industrial robots, aerospace automation equipment parts, computer numerical control (CNC) milling machines, and medical equipment. In addition, it engages in the research, development, design, manufacture, and sale of solar cells, electronic components, electric power supplies, electric transmission, and power distribution machinery products, as well as gear cutting tools and machinery; design, integrated application, research, development, manufacture, and sale of thread forming machinery; and manufacture and sale of aerospace parts. The company offers its products under the HIWIN brand name. Hiwin Technologies Corporation was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Taichung, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hiwin Technologies Corp reported revenue of 24.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 27.3B TWD in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B TWD in FY2025, compounding −18.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
24.3B TWD
Latest YoY
−0.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in TWD) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.7% (−4.3 + 0.6)
Revenue −2.9%/yr
FY21 27.3B TWD
FY22 29.3B TWD
FY23 24.6B TWD
FY24 24.4B TWD
FY25 24.3B TWD
Net income −18.9%/yr
FY21 3.5B TWD
FY22 4.5B TWD
FY23 2.0B TWD
FY24 2.0B TWD
FY25 1.5B TWD
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.5 %

of which total revenue +5.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %

EBIT margin −4.8 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

2049 screens 395% overvalued. Compare with Techtronic Industries Company →

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Hiwin Technologies Corp · Fair Value
73.32 TWD −395%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hiwin Technologies Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2049

Peer Group

Tools & Accessories · 122 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.18× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 84.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.59× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 27.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 3.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 4
FUTURE47 · sector 16
PAST16 · sector 28
HEALTH91 · sector 97
DIVIDEND11 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Tools & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Techtronic Industries Company 0669 HK$138.50 HK$78.56 −43%
Snap-on Incorporated SNA $391.86 $344.67 −12%
RBC Bearings Incorporated RBC $488.69 $179.94 −63%
Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO $284.90 $151.86 −47%
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc SWK $99.24 $52.80 −47%
AB SKF (publ) SKFB kr 275.40 kr 180.34 −35%
The Timken Company TKR $130.25 $64.85 −50%
The Toro Company TTC $92.37 $69.71 −25%
SFS Group SFSN CHF 131.40 CHF 118.30 −10%
Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co 002444 ¥30.51 ¥30.38 +0%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 73.32 TWD versus a price of 363.00 TWD, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2049?
Our model-based fair value for Hiwin Technologies Corp is 73.32 TWD (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 363.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2049?
Hiwin Technologies Corp has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049)?
Hiwin Technologies Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.3B TWD (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2049?
The net profit margin of Hiwin Technologies Corp is about 6.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hiwin Technologies Corp pay a dividend?
Hiwin Technologies Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.55% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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