Talos Energy (TALO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $2.8B · ISIN US87484T1088
What is Talos Energy really worth?
Talos Energy
TALO · US
Below-average quality, trading 48% below our fair value of $33.39.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +21.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (27/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($23.73 to $43.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.38 – $25.15 · fair‑value band $23.73 – $43.06 · the $17.29 price screens below the $33.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Talos Energy (TALO) currently trades at $17.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.39, implying the stock looks roughly 48.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.77 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $17.29 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $7.62, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Talos Energy generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of −42.6%. Revenue declined 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −32.2%. Net debt stands at $879M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.73 (bear case) to $43.06 (bull case); at $17.29, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 93%, TALO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($28.77) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Talos Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through two segments: Upstream, and Carbon Capture and Sequestration. It also engages in the exploration and production of natural gas liquid. Talos Energy Inc.
Full company description
Talos Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through two segments: Upstream, and Carbon Capture and Sequestration. It also engages in the exploration and production of natural gas liquid. Talos Energy Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Talos Energy reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$496M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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