Santos Ltd (STO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$24.9B (≈ $18.0B) · ISIN AU000000STO6
What is Santos Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 102% above our fair value of A$4.06.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated today
Share price +6.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.78 – A$8.45 · fair‑value band A$3.04 – A$5.20 · the A$8.21 price screens above the A$4.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Santos Ltd (STO) currently trades at A$8.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.06, implying the stock looks roughly 102.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$3.23 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$8.21 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.9900, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Santos Ltd generated revenue of A$4.9B at a net margin of 16.6%. Revenue declined 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at A$7.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.04 (bear case) to A$5.20 (bull case); at A$8.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −51%, STO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.0344 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$3.23) versus Growth DCF (A$0.9900). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies.
Full company description
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies. In addition, the company produces crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, ethane, liquefied natural gas, and condensate, as well as natural gas. Santos Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Santos Ltd reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $847M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
STO screens 102% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Santos Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Santos, Gladstone LNG Partners to Acquire Source Fields
- Santos Starts Delivering Oil from Alaska Project
- Santos Narrows 2026 Production Forecast
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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