Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.1B · ISIN JP3409800004
At a glance
SFSumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.SMFRF · US
Price from Sep 1, 2026$8.33
Fair Value$15.74
Upside+89.1%
Quality38/100
Below-average quality, trading 47% below our fair value of $15.74.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is $15.74 per share against a price of $8.33, so the fair value sits 89% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +15.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·3.84% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: MediumRange $9.31 to $22.75
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $15.50 to $15.74 (+1.5%) since Sep 5, 2026. Share price +4.2% over the past month.
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What matters now
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
A fairly wide model range ($9.31 to $22.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.13 – $12.64 · fair‑value band $9.31 – $22.75 · the $8.33 price screens below the $15.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 8, 2026.
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) currently trades at $8.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.74, implying the stock looks roughly 47.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $28.94 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the $8.33 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.18, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. generated revenue of ¥1.1T at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at ¥585B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: $9.31 (bear) to $22.75 (bull), the price of $8.33 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 49% fair-value upside, at 89%, SMFRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio7.7
P/S ratio0.36P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$1.08price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7
Dividend yield3.8%payout 29.6%
Net margin4.7%FY2026
Return on equity13.0%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)8.4%avg 5y
Operating margin6.6%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)¥1.1TTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+15.0%3y avg +10.8%
EPS growth (YoY)+41.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow¥23.5BFY2026
Net debt¥585BFY2026 · ≈ 24.9 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality38/100
Of which business quality 39
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Profitability43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance41
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments.
Full company description
Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments. The Timber Building Materials Business segment purchases, manufactures, processes, and sells timber, including logs, chips, timber, laminated timber, and building materials, consisting of plywood, fiberboard, processed wood composite materials, ceramic building materials, metal building materials, and housing equipment. The Housing Business segment is involved in the contracting, after-sales maintenance, and renovation of construction work for single-family homes and apartment complexes, sales of condominiums, real estate development, leasing, management, buying and selling, and brokerage of real estate, contracting of external structures and landscaping work for housing, urban greening business, CAD, and site surveys. The Construction and Real Estate Business segment sells overseas condominiums, constructs single-family homes, develops housing complexes and commercial complexes, and provides contracting for medium- to large-scale construction work. The Resources and Environment Business segment engages in the renewable energy business, forest resource business. The company was founded in 1691 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.4T in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥107B in FY2026, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2022.
Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥2.3T
Latest YoY
+10.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+3.1%
Dividend yield3.8%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 3.1% vs 10Y 5.8%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.7% (2021) → 7.4% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop91% (2009) · in JPY
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue+13.1%/yr
FY22¥1.4T
FY23¥1.7T
FY24¥1.7T
FY25¥2.1T
FY26¥2.3T
Net income+5.2%/yr
FY22¥87.2B
FY23¥109B
FY24¥102B
FY25¥117B
FY26¥107B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026)+8.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share−3.3 %
of which total revenue +7.7 % · buybacks/dilution −10.2 %
EBIT margin+10.2 %
Tax rate+1.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+86% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+22.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+15.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.7 %
FCF yield on price2.99 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.7 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 65
FUTURE75· sector 0
PAST52· sector 32
HEALTH71· sector 88
DIVIDEND77· sector 65
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.74 versus the last price from Sep 1, 2026 of $8.33, about +89% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMFRF?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is $15.74 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 1, 2026): $8.33.
What is the quality score of SMFRF?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.74 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.31, optimistic scenario $22.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.74, about +89% upside versus the last price from Sep 1, 2026 of $8.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.31, optimistic scenario $22.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SMFRF?
The net profit margin of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +22.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.5 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMFRF use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. it is $15.74 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $8.33. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, SMFRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.33, fair value $15.74, a gap of about +89% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMFRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.74). For Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. the two are $7.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. worth?
The market values Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $8.33; our models calculate a fair value of $15.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMFRF?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.: cautious scenario $9.31, base $15.74, optimistic $22.75 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $8.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMFRF?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.74 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 13.0%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMFRF from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. trades at $8.33, about 32% below its 52-week high of $12.17 and 11% above the low of $7.49 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $8.33, calculated fair value $15.74 (+89%), Quality Score 38/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMFRF calculated?
We run Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. currently trades 89 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.
SMFRF · US