Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $5.2B · ISIN JP3409800004
What is Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. really worth?
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd.
SMFRF · US
Below-average quality, trading 45% below our fair value of $15.26.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Share price +4.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.03 to $22.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.13 – $12.64 · fair‑value band $9.03 – $22.05 · the $8.33 price screens below the $15.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. (SMFRF) currently trades at $8.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.26, implying the stock looks roughly 45.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $28.50 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the $8.33 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.04, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. generated revenue of $1.1T at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at $585B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.03 (bear case) to $22.05 (bull case); at $8.33, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 83%, SMFRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($28.50) versus Asset-Based ($9.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments.
Full company description
Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. engages in forestry business in Japan, the United States, Australia, China, Indonesia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through the Timber Building Materials Business; Housing Business; Construction and Real Estate Business; and Resources and Environment Business segments. The Timber Building Materials Business segment purchases, manufactures, processes, and sells timber, including logs, chips, timber, laminated timber, and building materials, consisting of plywood, fiberboard, processed wood composite materials, ceramic building materials, metal building materials, and housing equipment. The Housing Business segment is involved in the contracting, after-sales maintenance, and renovation of construction work for single-family homes and apartment complexes, sales of condominiums, real estate development, leasing, management, buying and selling, and brokerage of real estate, contracting of external structures and landscaping work for housing, urban greening business, CAD, and site surveys. The Construction and Real Estate Business segment sells overseas condominiums, constructs single-family homes, develops housing complexes and commercial complexes, and provides contracting for medium- to large-scale construction work. The Resources and Environment Business segment engages in the renewable energy business, forest resource business. The company was founded in 1691 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Sumitomo Forestry Company. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.4T in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥107B in FY2026, compounding +5.2%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +7.7 % · buybacks/dilution −10.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,396 | $7,821 | +22% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $146.22 | $221.32 | +51% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | −30% |
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