Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $14.1B · ISIN US8894781033
What is Toll Brothers Inc really worth?
Toll Brothers Inc
TOL · US
A solid business, trading 36% below our fair value of $221.32.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −7.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($122.00 to $313.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.91 – $165.52 · fair‑value band $122.00 – $313.88 · the $141.80 price screens below the $221.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) currently trades at $141.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $221.32, implying the stock looks roughly 35.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $275.07 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $141.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $59.28, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toll Brothers Inc generated revenue of $11.0B at a net margin of 11.7%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $122.00 (bear case) to $313.88 (bull case); at $141.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 56%, TOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 10 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $10.25 per share, which is 4.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($275.07) versus Dividend Discount ($16.72). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living.
Full company description
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toll Brothers Inc reported revenue of $11.0B in FY2025 versus $8.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.2 % · buybacks/dilution +6.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch TOL: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Could Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Keep Winning Even as Mortgage Rates Stay High?
- Did Toll Brothers’ Luxury Community Expansion and Q3 Results Just Shift Toll Brothers' (TOL) Investment Narrative?
- Toll Brothers’s Q2 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
- Toll Brothers Announces Model Home Now Available for Sale at Northbrooke in Cumming, Georgia
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,396 | $7,821 | +22% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | −30% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $148.81 | $177.41 | +19% |
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