Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.3B · ISIN US1495681074
What is Cavco Industries Inc really worth?
Cavco Industries Inc
CVCO · US
A strong business, but trading 33% above our fair value of $421.10.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −1.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($323.16 to $688.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $184.55 – $697.76 · fair‑value band $323.16 – $688.58 · the $560.94 price screens above the $421.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) currently trades at $560.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $421.10, implying the stock looks roughly 33.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $592.38 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $560.94 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $95.90, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cavco Industries Inc generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 8.5%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $226M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $323.16 (bear case) to $688.58 (bull case); at $560.94, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at −25%, CVCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $10.39 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($592.38) versus Dividend Discount ($7.28). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments: Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services.
Full company description
Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments: Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services. The company produces park model RVs; vacation cabins; and factory-built commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, workforce housing, schools, and housing for the United States military troops. It also produces various modular homes, which include single and multi-section ranch, split-level, and Cape Cod style homes, as well as two- and three-story homes, and multi-family units. In addition, the company provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans to purchasers of various brands of factory-built homes sold by company-owned retail stores, as well as various independent distributors, builders, communities, and developers. Further, it offers property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured housing industry. The company distributes its products through a network of independent and company-owned retailers, planned community operators, and residential developers. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Cavco Industries Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2026 versus $1.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $191M in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +12.8 % · buybacks/dilution +1.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CVCO screens 33% overvalued. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Cavco Industries (CVCO) Too Expensive for New Investors?
- Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Backlog ...
- Cavco signals 7- to 9-week backlog range as Q1 revenue tops $600M
- Cavco Industries Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,396 | $7,821 | +22% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $146.22 | $221.32 | +51% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $148.81 | $177.41 | +19% |
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