PulteGroup Inc (PHM) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $23.8B · ISIN US7458671010

What is PulteGroup Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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What matters now

• Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• A fairly wide model range ($116.19 to $256.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $34.99 – $146.95 · fair‑value band $116.19 – $256.30 · the $124.31 price screens below the $190.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

PulteGroup Inc (PHM) currently trades at $124.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $190.17, implying the stock looks roughly 34.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $199.64 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $124.31 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $45.67, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, PulteGroup Inc generated revenue of $16.8B at a net margin of 12.1%. Revenue declined 12.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.2%. Net debt stands at $394M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $116.19 (bear case) to $256.30 (bull case); at $124.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 53%, PHM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.37 per share, which is 3.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($199.64) versus Asset-Based ($45.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the …

Full company description

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brands. It also engages in the mortgage banking, title, and insurance agency operations. PulteGroup, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PulteGroup Inc reported revenue of $17.3B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Residential Construction · 65 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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