NVR Inc (NVR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $17.5B · ISIN US62944T1051
What is NVR Inc really worth?
NVR Inc
NVR · US
A strong business, trading 19% below our fair value of $7,821.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +1.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($5,270 to $10,477) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3,670 – $9,924 · fair‑value band $5,270 – $10,477 · the $6,374 price screens below the $7,821 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
NVR Inc (NVR) currently trades at $6,374, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7,821, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8,251 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $6,374 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $959.31, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, NVR Inc generated revenue of $9.9B at a net margin of 12.5%. Revenue declined 21.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $760M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5,270 (bear case) to $10,477 (bull case); at $6,374, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 23%, NVR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $277.11 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($8,251) versus Asset-Based ($959.31). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates through Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names.
Full company description
NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates through Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, Washington, D.C., New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NVR Inc reported revenue of $10.3B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.8 % · buybacks/dilution +3.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $146.22 | $221.32 | +51% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | −30% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $148.81 | $177.41 | +19% |
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