Taylor Morn Home (TMHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.6B · ISIN US87724P1066
What is Taylor Morn Home really worth?
Taylor Morn Home
TMHC · US
A solid business, trading 47% below our fair value of $136.88.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +1.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($80.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($80.14 to $175.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.69 – $74.80 · fair‑value band $80.14 – $175.21 · the $72.45 price screens below the $136.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Taylor Morn Home (TMHC) currently trades at $72.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $136.88, implying the stock looks roughly 47.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $159.59 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $72.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $45.95, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Taylor Morn Home generated revenue of $7.6B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue declined 26.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $80.14 (bear case) to $175.21 (bull case); at $72.45, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 89%, TMHC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.56 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($159.59) versus Dividend Discount ($2.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder and land developer in the United States.
Full company description
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a homebuilder and land developer in the United States. It designs, builds, and sells single, and multifamily detached and attached homes in markets for entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers under the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brand names; and develops lifestyle and master-planned communities with single, and multi-family detached and attached homes. The company is also involved in the Build-to-Rent homebuilding business under the Yardly brand name; and provision of financial services, title insurance, and closing settlement services. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Taylor Morn Home reported revenue of $8.1B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $783M in FY2025, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.0 % · buybacks/dilution +1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,396 | $7,821 | +22% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $146.22 | $221.32 | +51% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | −30% |
| M/I Homes, Inc MHO | $148.81 | $177.41 | +19% |
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