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SM Energy Co (SM) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $6.7B · ISIN US78454L1008

What is SM Energy Co really worth?

SE SM Energy Co logo SM Energy Co SM · US
Price$37.60
Fair Value$35.95
Upside−4.4%
Quality49/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $35.95.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +22.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.6% net margin
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100
!Weak on past: 9 out of 100

For context

·2.18% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $23.43 – $59.99

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +21.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range ($23.43 to $59.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$49.45 $13.87 Fair Value $35.95 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.87 – $49.45 · fair‑value band $23.43 – $59.99 · the $37.60 price screens above the $35.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

SM Energy Co (SM) currently trades at $37.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.95, implying the stock looks roughly 4.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $46.15 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $37.60 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.80, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, SM Energy Co generated revenue of $3.6B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 73.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $23.43 (bear case) to $59.99 (bull case); at $37.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −4%, SM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.05 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $22.55 $49.00 $95.35 75
EPV $16.23 $20.06 $23.36 74
Growth DCF $21.98 $45.20 $83.85 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $22.55 $49.00 $95.35 75
Owner Earnings $14.22 $33.47 $67.20 71
5Y Revenue Exit $9.32 $19.86 $33.81 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $25.85 $55.09 $92.75 72
5Y P/E Exit $19.74 $42.06 $68.19 68
10Y Revenue Exit $13.19 $24.86 $42.36 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $24.44 $50.59 $92.18 65
10Y P/E Exit $20.42 $41.08 $71.42 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $18.38 $95.35 $131.87 64
Lynch FV $26.09 $37.27 $48.45 61
PEG = 1.0 $26.09 $37.27 $48.45 57
EPV $16.23 $20.06 $23.36 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.37 $6.72 $10.17 67
DDM Multi-Stage $3.37 $5.80 $7.09 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $28.38 $37.84 $47.30 63
P/S Multiple $11.84 $15.79 $19.73 58
P/B Multiple $27.08 $36.11 $45.14 55
EV/EBIT $17.67 $26.24 $34.82 65
EV/EBITDA $30.04 $42.74 $55.43 67
EV/Revenue $3.01 $7.74 $12.48 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.03 $13.44 $20.06 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $21.98 $45.20 $83.85 74
Rev-Margin DCF $9.32 $19.84 $33.95 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $18.97 $23.63 $58.24 69
ROIC Compounder $16.23 $20.06 $27.96 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $32.30 $46.15 $59.99 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($46.15) versus Dividend Discount ($5.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 15.9
P/S ratio 3.26 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.37 price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9
Dividend yield 2.2% payout 34.6%
Net margin 20.5% FY2025
Return on equity 2.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7% avg 5y
Operating margin −4.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $3.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +73.0% 3y avg −1.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −42.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $573M FY2025
Net debt $1.9B FY2025 · ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 11
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St.

Full company description

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

SM Energy Co reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $648M in FY2025, compounding +105.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.2B
Latest YoY
+18.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (35Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+82.8% (80.6 + 2.2)
Revenue +5.0%/yr
FY21 $2.6B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $2.4B
FY24 $2.7B
FY25 $3.2B
Net income +105.7%/yr
FY21 $36.2M
FY22 $1.1B
FY23 $818M
FY24 $770M
FY25 $648M

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SM Energy Co · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SM Energy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SM

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside −4% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 73% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.84× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 11.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.52× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE27 · sector 9
FUTURE100 · sector 7
PAST9 · sector 9
HEALTH76 · sector 87
DIVIDEND44 · sector 70

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 −1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.03 C$44.78 −35%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $59.17 $30.06 −49%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $200.52 $105.24 −48%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $47.35 $27.06 −43%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is SM Energy Co (SM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.95 versus a price of $37.60, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SM?
Our model-based fair value for SM Energy Co is $35.95 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.60.
What is the quality score of SM?
SM Energy Co has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of SM Energy Co (SM)?
SM Energy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SM?
The net profit margin of SM Energy Co is about 3.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does SM Energy Co pay a dividend?
SM Energy Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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