Seplat Petroleum Development Company PLC (SEPL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GB · Market cap 3.4B GBX · ISIN NGSEPLAT0008
What is Seplat Petroleum Development Company PLC really worth?
A solid business, but trading 113% above our fair value of £3.41.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £4.63 to £3.41 (−26.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +24.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£4.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.4886 – £7.35 · fair‑value band £2.55 – £4.26 · the £7.28 price screens above the £3.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Seplat Petroleum Development Company PLC (SEPL) currently trades at £7.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.41, implying the stock looks roughly 113.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £19.73 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the £7.28 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £2.04, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Seplat Petroleum Development Company PLC generated revenue of £2.8B at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at £661M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.55 (bear case) to £4.26 (bull case); at £7.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −53%, SEPL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.0162 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£19.73) versus Asset-Based (£2.04). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 91
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Seplat Energy Plc, an independent energy company, engages in the oil and gas exploration and production, and gas processing activities in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. It operates through two segments, Oil and Gas. The company explores, develops, and produces crude oil; and processes and produces gas. It also operates oil and gas assets.
Full company description
Seplat Energy Plc, an independent energy company, engages in the oil and gas exploration and production, and gas processing activities in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. It operates through two segments, Oil and Gas. The company explores, develops, and produces crude oil; and processes and produces gas. It also operates oil and gas assets. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of technical, liaison, and administrative support services relating to oil and gas exploration and production. Seplat Energy Plc was formerly known as Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc and changed its name to Seplat Energy Plc in May 2021. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Seplat Petroleum Development Company PLC reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $733M in FY2021, a compound +39.6%/yr. Reported net income was $164M in FY2025, compounding +3.6%/yr from FY2021.
SEPL screens 113% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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