Safran SA (SAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Safran SA stock €344, price €302, upside +14.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €84.69 – €363.60 · fair‑value band €221.73 – €514.27 · the €302.00 price screens below the €344.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses in France, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East.
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The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors.
The Aerospace Propulsion segment designs, develops, produces, and markets propulsion and mechanical power transmission systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, civil and military helicopters, and drones; and offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, as well as sells spare parts.
The Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems segment provides landing gears and brakes; nacelles and reversers; avionics, such as flight controls and onboard information systems; security systems, including evacuation slides and oxygen masks; onboard computers and fuel systems; electrical power management systems and related engineering services; optronic equipment and sights, navigation equipment and sensors, infantry, and drones; MRO services; and sells spare parts.
The Aircraft Interiors segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets aircraft seats for passengers and crew; cabin equipment, overhead bins, class dividers, passenger service units, cabin interior solutions, chilling systems, galleys, electrical inserts, and trolleys; and cabin equipment and passenger comfort-focused solutions such as water distribution, lavatories, air systems, and in-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC) solutions.
The company's products and services are used in commercial civil and military aircrafts, and helicopters. Safran SA was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Safran SA (SAF) currently trades at €302.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €344.19, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €280.45 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the €302.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €43.33, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €221.73 (bear) to €514.27 (bull), the price of €302.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Safran SA reported revenue of €31.2B in FY2025 versus €15.3B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was €7.2B in FY2025, compounding +259.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €125B Large · P/E ratio 32.3 · P/S ratio 3.74 · EPS (TTM) €9.36 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 14%, SAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€221.73Fair Value €344.19Bull€514.27
Price €302.00 · Upside +14.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€4.87 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+85.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+84.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.84.7% vs 14.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +8.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat signals from profitability metrics are offset by thin evidence of durable advantages across categories, while defense capacity growth runs alongside civil aerospace operations.
Main risk: Aftermarket services facing tougher comparisons risk undermining consistent growth more than the missile and drone expansion can offset.
Safran is doubling its Texas plant capacity for turbojet engines used in missiles and drones, where demand for the TR40 family has already quadrupled. This defense expansion builds on long-standing US operations alongside its civil aerospace work. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the added missile and drone output provide more consistent growth than aftermarket services facing tougher comparisons?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+14.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Safran SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAF
Frequently asked questions
Is Safran SA (SAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €344.19 versus a price of €302.00, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SAF?
Our model-based fair value for Safran SA is €344.19 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €302.00.
What is the quality score of SAF?
Safran SA has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Safran SA (SAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €344.19 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €221.73, optimistic scenario €514.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Safran SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €344.19, about +14% upside versus a price of €302.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €221.73, optimistic scenario €514.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Safran SA (SAF)?
Safran SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €33.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Safran SA pay a dividend?
Safran SA currently shows a dividend yield of 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Safran SA (SAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Safran SA would have to grow free cash flow by +15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAF use?
Our models discount Safran SA at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Safran SA that is +15.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Safran SA (SAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Safran SA grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +15.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Safran SA (SAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Safran SA (+15.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Safran SA (SAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.57 %: that much free cash flow Safran SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Safran SA (SAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Safran SA it is €344.19 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of €302.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Safran SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, SAF trades below its calculated fair value: price €302.00, fair value €344.19, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€302.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€344.19). For Safran SA the two are €42.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Safran SA worth?
The market values Safran SA at about €125B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is €302.00; our models calculate a fair value of €344.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAF?
Our models span a range for Safran SA: cautious scenario €221.73, base €344.19, optimistic €514.27 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price €302.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAF?
Safran SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.3 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €344.19 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 39.7 (reported for FY2025: 17.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 30.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 8.5, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 19.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SAF?
The PEG ratio of Safran SA is 1.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Safran SA (SAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Safran SA (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 27.5%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAF from its 52-week high?
Safran SA trades at €302.00, about 17% below its 52-week high of €363.60 and 15% above the low of €262.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €344.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Safran SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Safran SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price €302.00, calculated fair value €344.19 (+14%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAF calculated?
We run Safran SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €344.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Safran SA currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Safran SA (SAF)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was €302.00. Our model-based fair value is €344.19, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Safran SA right now?
A fairly wide model range (€221.73 to €514.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Safran SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Safran SA (SAF)?
The market capitalisation of Safran SA is €125B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Safran SA (SAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Safran SA is 3.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Safran SA (SAF)?
Earnings per share at Safran SA are €9.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Safran SA (SAF)?
The dividend yield of Safran SA is 1.1% (payout 80.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 35.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Safran SA (SAF)?
The net margin of Safran SA is 11.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Safran SA (SAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Safran SA is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Safran SA (SAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Safran SA is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Safran SA (SAF)?
The operating margin of Safran SA is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Safran SA (SAF)?
Revenue at Safran SA is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Safran SA (SAF)?
Earnings per share at Safran SA are growing −65.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Safran SA (SAF) hold?
Safran SA holds more cash than debt, €816M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026