Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$15.7B (≈ $11.3B) · ISIN AU000000QAN2
What is Qantas Airways Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 31% below our fair value of A$13.67.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from A$19.72 to A$13.67 (−30.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −9.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (A$5.81 to A$22.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.94 – A$11.56 · fair‑value band A$5.81 – A$22.90 · the A$9.39 price screens below the A$13.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN) currently trades at A$9.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$13.67, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$19.70 per share, and 15 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$9.39 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$5.17, and 8 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Qantas Airways Ltd generated revenue of A$24.6B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 153.6%. Net debt stands at A$5.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$5.81 (bear case) to A$22.90 (bull case); at A$9.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 46%, QAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.6970 per share, which is 5.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$19.70) versus Asset-Based (A$0.3400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers cargo, passengers, and air freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs.
Full company description
Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers cargo, passengers, and air freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs. The company operates under the Qantas and Jetstar brands. Qantas Airways Limited was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Qantas Airways Ltd reported revenue of A$23.8B in FY2025 versus A$5.4B in FY2021, a compound +45.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.6B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +3.9 % · buybacks/dilution +2.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Webull Australia partners with Qantas Frequent Flyer to reward Australian clients with Qantas Points
- Qantas, Oatly and Kingspan Executives Join Sustainability LIVE Leadership Summit at London Climate Action Week
- Is It Time To Reassess Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) After Recent Share Price Rebound
- Qantas Gains 4.9% Despite Fresh Project Sunrise Delay
Peer Group
Airlines · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $80.07 | $115.82 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $110.60 | $175.62 | +59% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $38.73 | $14.76 | −62% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,166 | ₹3,073 | −41% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.50 | $106.79 | +103% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.08 | ¥1.28 | −75% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.99 | €18.94 | +137% |
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