Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$15.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$19.72 to A$13.67 (−30.7%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price −1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 36% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (A$5.81 to A$22.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.94 – A$11.56 · fair‑value band A$5.81 – A$22.90 · the A$10.07 price screens below the A$13.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) currently trades at A$10.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$13.67, implying the stock looks roughly 35.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Qantas Airways Limited generated revenue of A$24.6B at a net margin of 6.5%. Revenue grew 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 153.6%. Net debt stands at A$5.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$5.81 (bear case) to A$22.90 (bull case); at A$10.07, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 36%, QAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$22.27) versus Asset-Based (A$0.3400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers cargo, passengers, and air freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs.
Full company description
Qantas Airways Limited provides air transportation services in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group, and Qantas Loyalty segments. It offers cargo, passengers, and air freight services; and customer loyalty recognition programs. The company operates under the Qantas and Jetstar brands. Qantas Airways Limited was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Qantas Airways Limited reported revenue of A$23.8B in FY2025 versus A$5.4B in FY2021, a compound +45.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.6B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +3.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Webull Australia partners with Qantas Frequent Flyer to reward Australian clients with Qantas Points
- Qantas, Oatly and Kingspan Executives Join Sustainability LIVE Leadership Summit at London Climate Action Week
- Is It Time To Reassess Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) After Recent Share Price Rebound
- Qantas Gains 4.9% Despite Fresh Project Sunrise Delay
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $89.93 | $115.82 | +29% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $125.12 | $175.62 | +40% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $44.98 | $14.76 | -67% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,333 | ₹3,073 | -42% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.07 | ¥1.28 | -75% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.57 | ¥14.20 | +298% |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 | HK$14.80 | HK$31.02 | +110% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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