PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $66.4B · ISIN US6937181088
What is PACCAR Inc really worth?
PACCAR Inc
PCAR · US
A solid business, but trading 31% above our fair value of $94.80.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −8.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($61.27 to $118.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.83 – $138.21 · fair‑value band $61.27 – $118.50 · the $124.51 price screens above the $94.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) currently trades at $124.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $94.80, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $99.12 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $124.51 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.52, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, PACCAR Inc generated revenue of $27.8B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue declined 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $9.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $61.27 (bear case) to $118.50 (bull case); at $124.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −24%, PCAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.29 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($99.12) versus Asset-Based ($24.52). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services.
Full company description
PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Europe, Central and South America, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods; and diesel engine products. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment; and operates its own full-service lease outlets. The company manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PACCAR Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PCAR screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook General Motors, PACCAR, Ford and Harley-Davidson
- Paccar (PCAR) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
- Paccar (PCAR) Down 3.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $800.25 | $307.83 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $622.66 | $182.29 | −71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.73 | €47.70 | +4% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €37.78 | €52.60 | +39% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.11 | ¥11.79 | +45% |
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