Caterpillar Inc (CAT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $432B · ISIN US1491231015
What is Caterpillar Inc really worth?
Caterpillar Inc
CAT · US
A solid business, but trading 160% above our fair value of $307.83.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −8.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($402.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($192.22 to $402.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $152.64 – $1,065 · fair‑value band $192.22 – $402.89 · the $800.14 price screens above the $307.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Caterpillar Inc (CAT) currently trades at $800.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $307.83, implying the stock looks roughly 159.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $360.66 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $800.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $31.01, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Caterpillar Inc generated revenue of $70.8B at a net margin of 13.3%. Revenue grew 22.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.3%. Net debt stands at $33.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $192.22 (bear case) to $402.89 (bull case); at $800.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −62%, CAT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $9.37 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($360.66) versus Asset-Based ($31.01). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Caterpillar Inc. provides construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives in the United States and internationally. The Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, cold planers, compactors, forestry machines, material handlers, motor graders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, telehandlers, track-type tractors, and track and wheel excavators; backhoe, compact track, skid steer, track-type, and wheel loaders; and related parts and work tools. Its Resource Industries segment provides electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, mining trucks, wheel loaders, off-highway and articulated trucks, wide-body trucks, wheel tractor scrapers and dozers, and landfill and soil compactors; machinery components, and wear and maintenance components; and technology products and services for fleet management, equipment management analytics, autonomous machine capabilities, safety services, and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engine powered generator sets; reciprocating engines, drivetrain, and integrated systems and solutions; centrifugal gas compressors and related services; and diesel-electric locomotive components, and other rail-related products. Its Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, revolving charge accounts, installment sale contracts, repair/rebuild financing, working capital loans, and wholesale financing; and insurance and risk management products and services. The All Other segment offers parts distribution; logistics and distribution services; electronics and control systems; dealer portfolio management; brand management and marketing strategy; and digital investment services. It also provides mining software solutions. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. Caterpillar Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Caterpillar Inc reported revenue of $67.6B in FY2025 versus $51.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.9B in FY2025, compounding +8.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.8 % · buybacks/dilution +2.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CAT screens 160% overvalued. Compare with Deere & Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heavy Machinery Q2 Earnings: Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is the Best in the Biz
- Jim Cramer Explains the Reason Behind Caterpillar’s (CAT) Post-Earnings Pullbacks
- Can CAT's AI Push With FieldAI Redefine Industrial Operations?
- Caterpillar (CAT) Down 9.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deere & Company DE | $622.66 | $182.29 | −71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $122.45 | $94.80 | −23% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.73 | €47.70 | +4% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €37.78 | €52.60 | +39% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.11 | ¥11.79 | +45% |
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