XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 96.3B CNY (≈ $14.4B) · ISIN CNE000000FH0
What is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥7.91.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from ¥11.79 to ¥7.91 (−32.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.97 – ¥12.36 · fair‑value band ¥5.93 – ¥9.88 · the ¥8.14 price screens above the ¥7.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) currently trades at ¥8.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.91, implying the stock looks roughly 2.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥20.45 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥8.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.46, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd generated revenue of 103B CNY at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. Net debt stands at 9.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.93 (bear case) to ¥9.88 (bull case); at ¥8.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −3%, 000425 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.2582 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥20.45) versus Asset-Based (¥3.46). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel …
Full company description
XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel machinery, resource exploration machinery, and port machinery. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1943 and is based in Xuzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 101B CNY in FY2025 versus 117B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +14.5 % · buybacks/dilution −5.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- XCMG's Electric Mining Push Featured in The Australian Financial Review
- GCC Construction Machinery Market Analysis 2026-2031 Featuring Detailed Profiles of Key Players - Caterpillar, Komatsu, AB Volvo, XCMG Const
- Dangote signs $400m construction equipment deal with China’s XCMG
- XCMG Flagship Mining Trucks Depart for World-Class Simandou Project, Delivering Key Chinese Technology to Global Mining Development
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $800.25 | $307.83 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $622.66 | $182.29 | −71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $122.45 | $94.80 | −23% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.73 | €47.70 | +4% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €37.78 | €52.60 | +39% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
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