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XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 96.3B CNY (≈ $14.4B) · ISIN CNE000000FH0

What is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd really worth?

XC XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd 000425 · SHE
Price¥8.14
Fair Value¥7.91
Upside−2.8%
Quality62/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥7.91.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.4 %/yr)
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (13/15)

Risks

!Thin margins · 6.4% net margin
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·2.46% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range ¥5.93 – ¥9.88

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from ¥11.79 to ¥7.91 (−32.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥12.36 ¥3.97 Fair Value ¥7.91 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.97 – ¥12.36 · fair‑value band ¥5.93 – ¥9.88 · the ¥8.14 price screens above the ¥7.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

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Analysis

XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) currently trades at ¥8.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.91, implying the stock looks roughly 2.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥20.45 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥8.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥3.46, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd generated revenue of 103B CNY at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. Net debt stands at 9.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.93 (bear case) to ¥9.88 (bull case); at ¥8.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −3%, 000425 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.2582 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥14.09 ¥23.81 ¥50.07 75
EPV ¥8.31 ¥9.50 ¥10.54 74
Growth DCF ¥13.60 ¥26.34 ¥49.85 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥14.09 ¥23.81 ¥50.07 75
Owner Earnings ¥10.02 ¥20.45 ¥41.58 71
5Y Revenue Exit ¥10.50 ¥18.21 ¥30.89 70
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.03 ¥23.83 ¥40.53 73
5Y P/E Exit ¥10.99 ¥19.99 ¥31.16 69
10Y Revenue Exit ¥11.24 ¥20.07 ¥32.38 65
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥13.30 ¥24.65 ¥44.46 65
10Y P/E Exit ¥11.89 ¥20.97 ¥35.68 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.82 ¥24.90 ¥34.84 63
Lynch FV ¥7.24 ¥10.35 ¥13.45 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.24 ¥10.35 ¥13.45 57
EPV ¥8.31 ¥9.50 ¥10.54 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥8.84 ¥11.79 ¥14.73 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.16 ¥9.54 ¥11.93 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.16 ¥9.54 ¥11.93 55
EV/EBIT ¥11.79 ¥15.33 ¥18.87 66
EV/EBITDA ¥12.97 ¥16.90 ¥20.83 67
EV/Revenue ¥8.75 ¥12.00 ¥15.25 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.58 ¥3.46 ¥5.16 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥13.60 ¥26.34 ¥49.85 74
Rev-Margin DCF ¥10.50 ¥18.48 ¥30.08 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.64 ¥5.29 ¥9.76 73
ROIC Compounder ¥9.94 ¥14.03 ¥19.15 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥10.17 ¥14.52 ¥18.88 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥20.45) versus Asset-Based (¥3.46). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.3
P/S ratio 0.93 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥0.5700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3
Dividend yield 2.5% payout 35.1%
Net margin 6.5% FY2025
Return on equity 10.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 103B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.3% 3y avg +2.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +1.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 10.0B CNY FY2025
Net debt 9.2B CNY FY2025 · ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel …

Full company description

XCMG Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacturing and sale of construction machinery in China. The company offers hoisting machinery, excavators, loaders, road machinery, piling machinery, non-excavation machinery, concrete machinery, special vehicles, aerial working equipment, sanitation machinery, fire-fighting machinery, tunnel machinery, resource exploration machinery, and port machinery. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1943 and is based in Xuzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 101B CNY in FY2025 versus 117B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
101B CNY
Latest YoY
+10.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (30Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.8% (3.3 + 2.5)
Revenue −3.6%/yr
FY21 117B CNY
FY22 93.8B CNY
FY23 92.8B CNY
FY24 91.7B CNY
FY25 101B CNY
Net income −5.4%/yr
FY21 8.2B CNY
FY22 4.3B CNY
FY23 5.3B CNY
FY24 6.0B CNY
FY25 6.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +12.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.5 %

of which total revenue +14.5 % · buybacks/dilution −5.2 %

EBIT margin +4.1 %
Tax rate +0.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000425

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −3% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.14× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.59× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.46× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE30 · sector 12
FUTURE47 · sector 29
PAST42 · sector 31
HEALTH93 · sector 93
DIVIDEND49 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Exor N.V EXO €72.10 €123.44 +71%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥19.06 ¥20.84 +9%
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Frequently asked questions

Is XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.91 versus a price of ¥8.14, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 000425?
Our model-based fair value for XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is ¥7.91 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.14.
What is the quality score of 000425?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd (000425)?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 103B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000425?
The net profit margin of XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd is about 6.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
XCMG Construction Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.46% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
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