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Traton SE (8TRA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €18.0B · ISIN DE000TRAT0N7

What is Traton SE really worth?

TS Traton SE 8TRA · XETRA
Price€37.92
Fair Value€52.60
Upside+38.7%
Quality35/100

Below-average quality, trading 28% below our fair value of €52.60.

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Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100

For context

·2.45% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range €39.45 – €65.75

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −4.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€39.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€41.28 €10.01 Fair Value €52.60 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €10.01 – €41.28 · fair‑value band €39.45 – €65.75 · the €37.92 price screens below the €52.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

Traton SE (8TRA) currently trades at €37.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €52.60, implying the stock looks roughly 27.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €57.87 per share, and 8 of the 17 models we run sit above the €37.92 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €16.78, and 9 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Traton SE generated revenue of €43.7B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at €24.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €39.45 (bear case) to €65.75 (bull case); at €37.92, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 39%, 8TRA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €1.14 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence €31.46 €33.96 €40.10 76
EPV €10.60 €16.78 €22.19 72
Owner Earnings €15.33 €38.94 €75.12 71
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €15.33 €38.94 €75.12 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €21.04 €66.49 €88.57 64
Lynch FV €14.60 €20.85 €27.11 61
PEG = 1.0 €14.60 €20.85 €27.11 57
EPV €10.60 €16.78 €22.19 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €15.61 €32.45 €51.49 66
DDM Multi-Stage €15.61 €25.99 €34.06 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €48.73 €64.97 €81.22 63
P/S Multiple €39.45 €52.60 €65.75 58
P/B Multiple €39.45 €52.60 €65.75 55
EV/EBIT €35.38 €56.00 €76.62 64
EV/EBITDA €80.94 €116.75 €152.56 67
EV/Revenue €17.67 €36.59 €55.51 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €18.63 €24.97 €37.27 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence €31.46 €33.96 €40.10 76
ROIC Compounder €10.60 €16.78 €22.19 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €40.51 €57.87 €75.23 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€57.87) versus Economic Profit (€16.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.5
P/S ratio 0.51 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €2.61 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5
Dividend yield 2.5% payout 35.6%
Net margin 3.5% FY2025
Return on equity 6.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €43.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.5% 3y avg +3.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −51.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −€1.9B FY2025
Net debt €24.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally.

Full company description

Traton SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial vehicles in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States of America, rest of North America, Brazil, rest of South America, and internationally. It operates through Scania Vehicles and Services; MAN Truck & Bus; International Motors; Volkswagen Truck & Bus; and TRATON Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks; light commercial options and durable construction vehicles; school buses under the IC Bus brand; commercial buses; vans, trucks, and buses; and diesel and gas engines, as well as services for passenger and freight transport. It provides a cloud-based platform for the transport and logistics industry under the RIO brand; after-sales services; and custom digital solutions, as well as operates charging stations for commercial vehicles. The company offers its products and services under the MAN, Scania, International, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus brands. In addition, it finances, insures, and leases commercial vehicles. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Traton SE is a subsidiary of Volkswagen International Luxemburg S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Traton SE reported revenue of €44.1B in FY2025 versus €30.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +35.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€44.1B
Latest YoY
−7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.9% (9.4 + 2.5)
Revenue +9.5%/yr
FY21 €30.6B
FY22 €40.3B
FY23 €46.9B
FY24 €47.5B
FY25 €44.1B
Net income +35.6%/yr
FY21 €457M
FY22 €1.1B
FY23 €2.5B
FY24 €2.8B
FY25 €1.5B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Traton SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8TRA

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +39% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.86× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.48× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE85 · sector 12
FUTURE0 · sector 29
PAST28 · sector 31
HEALTH57 · sector 93
DIVIDEND49 · sector 39

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Caterpillar Inc CAT $800.25 $307.83 −62%
Deere & Company DE $622.66 $182.29 −71%
AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA kr 351.40 kr 288.08 −18%
PACCAR Inc PCAR $122.45 $94.80 −23%
Daimler Truck Holding DTG €45.73 €47.70 +4%
Epiroc AB EPIA kr 272.80 kr 144.14 −47%
Exor N.V EXO €72.10 €123.44 +71%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥19.06 ¥20.84 +9%
Metso Oyj METSO €16.75 €10.73 −36%
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥8.11 ¥11.79 +45%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Traton SE (8TRA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €52.60 versus a price of €37.92, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8TRA?
Our model-based fair value for Traton SE is €52.60 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €37.92.
What is the quality score of 8TRA?
Traton SE has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Traton SE (8TRA)?
Traton SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €43.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8TRA?
The net profit margin of Traton SE is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Traton SE pay a dividend?
Traton SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.45% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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