NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.1B · ISIN CA65340P1062
What is NexGen Energy Ltd. really worth?
NexGen Energy Ltd.
NXE · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 936% above our fair value of $1.03.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from $1.04 to $1.03 (−1.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +9.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.6800 to $1.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.50 – $13.92 · fair‑value band $0.6800 – $1.29 · the $10.67 price screens above the $1.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE) currently trades at $10.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.03, implying the stock looks roughly 936.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
It earns a return on equity of −29.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $215M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.6800 (bear case) to $1.29 (bull case); at $10.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −65% fair-value upside, at −90%, NXE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
NexGen Energy Ltd., an exploration and development stage company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of uranium properties in Canada.
Full company description
NexGen Energy Ltd., an exploration and development stage company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of uranium properties in Canada. The company holds a 100% interest in the Rook I project that consists of 32 contiguous mineral claims totaling an area of approximately 35,065 hectares located in the southwestern Athabasca Basin of Saskatchewan. NexGen Energy Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NexGen Energy Ltd. reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$309M in FY2025.
NXE screens 936% overvalued. Compare with China National Uranium Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is BHP Group (BHP) the Missing Piece in NexGen Energy (NXE)’s $1 Billion Financing Plan?
- NexGen Announces 2026 Investor Day
- NexGen Energy (TSX:NXE) Looks Fully Priced As Special Call Puts Valuation In Focus
- NexGen Expands High-Grade Subdomain Vertical Extent by 17% to 644 m and Intersects Continuous Strong Mineralization Across Patterson Corrido
Peer Group
Uranium · 26 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China National Uranium Co 001280 | ¥63.29 | ¥16.71 | −74% |
| Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund UU | $18.61 | $29.76 | +60% |
| Centrus Energy Corp LEU | $170.46 | $58.25 | −66% |
| CGN Mining Company 1164 | HK$2.87 | HK$1.01 | −65% |
| Deep Yellow Limited DYL | A$1.75 | A$0.3000 | −83% |
| IsoEnergy Ltd ISO | C$15.59 | C$1.59 | −90% |
| Bannerman Energy Ltd BMN | A$3.63 | A$3.63 | +0% |
| Uranium Royalty Corp UROY | $4.44 | $1.62 | −64% |
| Boss Energy Limited BOE | A$1.53 | A$0.3600 | −76% |
| enCore Energy Corp EU | C$1.93 | C$0.7900 | −59% |
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