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CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$18.5B (≈ $2.4B) · ISIN KYG2029E1052

What is CGN Mining Co Ltd really worth?

CM CGN Mining Co Ltd 1164 · HK
PriceHK$2.44
Fair ValueHK$1.01
Upside−58.6%
Quality43/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 142% above our fair value of HK$1.01.

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Strengths

✓Ranks above peers (9/12)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +19.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.6% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 11 out of 100

For context

·0.57% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.7600 – HK$1.27

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −12.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.23 HK$0.5443 Fair Value HK$1.01 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5443 – HK$5.23 · fair‑value band HK$0.7600 – HK$1.27 · the HK$2.44 price screens above the HK$1.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) currently trades at HK$2.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.01, implying the stock looks roughly 141.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$2.26 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$2.44 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.1300, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Mining Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$6.9B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue declined 58.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at HK$2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7600 (bear case) to HK$1.27 (bull case); at HK$2.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −59%, 1164 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.5300 HK$0.5900 HK$0.9400 75
EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$1.06 HK$2.26 HK$4.77 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.4100 HK$2.82 HK$3.96 63
Lynch FV HK$1.03 HK$1.47 HK$1.91 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.03 HK$1.47 HK$1.91 57
EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.9400 HK$1.25 HK$1.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.7600 HK$1.01 HK$1.27 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.7600 HK$1.01 HK$1.27 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1500 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.1400 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 HK$0.6000 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.5300 HK$0.5900 HK$0.9400 75
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.32 HK$1.89 HK$2.46 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.26) versus Economic Profit (HK$0.1300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 40.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 2.68 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.7
Dividend yield 0.6%
Net margin 6.6% FY2025
Return on equity 10.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 5.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$6.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −58.0% 3y avg +23.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −36.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$985M FY2025
Net debt HK$2.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CGN Mining Company Limited engages in the development and trading of natural uranium resources to nuclear power plants. It operates through Natural Uranium Trading and Other Investments segments. The company also invests in natural uranium resources.

Full company description

CGN Mining Company Limited engages in the development and trading of natural uranium resources to nuclear power plants. It operates through Natural Uranium Trading and Other Investments segments. The company also invests in natural uranium resources. It operates in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Europe, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. CGN Mining Company Limited is a subsidiary of China Uranium Development Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CGN Mining Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.9B in FY2025 versus HK$3.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$453M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$6.9B
Latest YoY
−20.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.3% (19.7 + 0.6)
Revenue +15.5%/yr
FY21 HK$3.9B
FY22 HK$3.6B
FY23 HK$7.4B
FY24 HK$8.6B
FY25 HK$6.9B
Net income +26.2%/yr
FY21 HK$178M
FY22 HK$515M
FY23 HK$497M
FY24 HK$342M
FY25 HK$453M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +29.8 %

of which total revenue +26.6 % · buybacks/dilution +2.5 %

EBIT margin −36.6 %
Tax rate +0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +35.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1164 screens 142% overvalued. Compare with China National Uranium Co →

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HK$1.01 −142%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CGN Mining Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1164

Peer Group

Uranium · 26 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −59% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −58% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Uranium median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 40.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.06× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.70× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST43 · sector 0
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND11 · sector 11

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China National Uranium Co 001280 ¥63.29 ¥16.71 −74%
NexGen Energy Ltd NXE $9.93 $1.03 −90%
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund UU $18.61 $29.76 +60%
Centrus Energy Corp LEU $170.46 $58.25 −66%
Deep Yellow Limited DYL A$1.75 A$0.3000 −83%
IsoEnergy Ltd ISO C$15.59 C$1.59 −90%
Bannerman Energy Ltd BMN A$3.63 A$3.63 +0%
Uranium Royalty Corp UROY $4.44 $1.62 −64%
Boss Energy Limited BOE A$1.53 A$0.3600 −76%
enCore Energy Corp EU C$1.93 C$0.7900 −59%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.01 versus a price of HK$2.44, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1164?
Our model-based fair value for CGN Mining Co Ltd is HK$1.01 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.44.
What is the quality score of 1164?
CGN Mining Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CGN Mining Co Ltd (1164)?
CGN Mining Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1164?
The net profit margin of CGN Mining Co Ltd is about 6.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CGN Mining Co Ltd pay a dividend?
CGN Mining Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.57% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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