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CGN Mining Company (1164) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$18.5B

CM CGN Mining Company 1164 · HK
PriceHK$2.60
Fair ValueHK$1.01
Upside-61.2%
Quality43/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 6.6% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.56% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/11)
Narrow moat 32/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.7600 – HK$1.27 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +10.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.23 HK$0.5108 Fair Value HK$1.01 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5108 – HK$5.23 · fair‑value band HK$0.7600 – HK$1.27 · the HK$2.60 price screens above the HK$1.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

CGN Mining Company (1164) currently trades at HK$2.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.01, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Mining Company generated revenue of HK$6.9B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue declined 58.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at HK$2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.7600 (bear case) to HK$1.27 (bull case); at HK$2.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -61%, 1164 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$0.5300 HK$0.5900 HK$0.9400 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.32 HK$1.89 HK$2.46 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$1.06 HK$2.26 HK$4.77 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.4100 HK$2.82 HK$3.96 54
Lynch FV HK$1.03 HK$1.47 HK$1.91 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.03 HK$1.47 HK$1.91 46
EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.9400 HK$1.25 HK$1.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.7600 HK$1.01 HK$1.27 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.7600 HK$1.01 HK$1.27 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1500 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.1400 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1500 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3000 HK$0.4000 HK$0.6000 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.5300 HK$0.5900 HK$0.9400 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.32 HK$1.89 HK$2.46 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.26) versus Economic Profit (HK$0.1300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$6.9B
Revenue growth (YoY) -58.0%
Net margin 6.6%
Return on equity 10.7%
Free cash flow −HK$985M FY2025
P/E ratio 40.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 5.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0100
Dividend yield 0.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -36.9%
Net debt HK$2.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

CGN Mining Company Limited engages in the development and trading of natural uranium resources to nuclear power plants. It operates through Natural Uranium Trading and Other Investments segments. The company also invests in natural uranium resources.

Full company description

CGN Mining Company Limited engages in the development and trading of natural uranium resources to nuclear power plants. It operates through Natural Uranium Trading and Other Investments segments. The company also invests in natural uranium resources. It operates in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Europe, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. CGN Mining Company Limited is a subsidiary of China Uranium Development Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CGN Mining Company reported revenue of HK$6.9B in FY2025 versus HK$3.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$453M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$6.9B
Latest YoY
−20.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.1%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.5%
Revenue +15.5%/yr
FY21 HK$3.9B
FY22 HK$3.6B
FY23 HK$7.4B
FY24 HK$8.6B
FY25 HK$6.9B
Net income +26.2%/yr
FY21 HK$178M
FY22 HK$515M
FY23 HK$497M
FY24 HK$342M
FY25 HK$453M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +29.8 pp

of which total revenue +26.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +3.2 pp

EBIT margin −36.6 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +18.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1164 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with China National Uranium Co →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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CGN Mining Company · Fair Value
HK$1.01 −61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CGN Mining Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1164

Peer Group

Uranium · 26 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −61% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -58% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Uranium median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 40.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.06× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.70× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 43 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 11 · sector 0

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China National Uranium Co 001280 ¥63.29 ¥16.71 -74%
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund UU $18.61 $29.76 +60%
Centrus Energy Corp LEU $185.06 $58.25 -69%
Deep Yellow Limited DYL A$1.53 A$0.3000 -80%
IsoEnergy Ltd ISOU $10.55 $1.78 -83%
Bannerman Energy Ltd BMN A$3.63 A$3.63 +0%
Uranium Royalty Corp UROY $4.09 $1.62 -60%
Boss Energy Limited BOE A$1.52 A$0.3600 -76%
enCore Energy Corp EU C$1.93 C$0.7900 -59%
Atha Energy Corp SASK C$1.07 C$0.4200 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CGN Mining Company (1164) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.01 versus a price of HK$2.60, about −61% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1164?
Our model-based fair value for CGN Mining Company is HK$1.01 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.60.
What is the quality score of 1164?
CGN Mining Company has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CGN Mining Company (1164)?
CGN Mining Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1164?
The net profit margin of CGN Mining Company is about 6.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CGN Mining Company pay a dividend?
CGN Mining Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.56% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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