Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $2.8B · ISIN US6655313079
What is Northern Oil & Gas Inc really worth?
Northern Oil & Gas Inc
NOG · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 92% above our fair value of $13.50.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +26.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($8.08 to $15.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.32 – $38.67 · fair‑value band $8.08 – $15.01 · the $25.89 price screens above the $13.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG) currently trades at $25.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.50, implying the stock looks roughly 91.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.27 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $25.89 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $6.18, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Oil & Gas Inc generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of −32.4%. Revenue declined 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −29.8%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.08 (bear case) to $15.01 (bull case); at $25.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −48%, NOG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($33.27) versus Multiples ($6.18). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northern Oil & Gas Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $975M in FY2021, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was $38.8M in FY2025, compounding +57.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
NOG screens 92% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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