Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $4.8B · ISIN US6267171022
What is Murphy Oil Corporation really worth?
Murphy Oil Corporation
MUR · US
A solid business, but trading 15% above our fair value of $32.36.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $21.32 to $32.36 (+51.8%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −2.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.19 – $44.56 · fair‑value band $19.52 – $32.36 · the $37.32 price screens above the $32.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) currently trades at $37.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.36, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $23.92 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $37.32 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $8.39, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Murphy Oil Corporation generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.2%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.52 (bear case) to $32.36 (bull case); at $37.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −13%, MUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($23.92) versus Growth Earnings ($8.39). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.
Full company description
Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Murphy Oil Corporation was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Murphy Oil Corporation reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2025.
MUR screens 15% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Murphy Oil Corporation Announces New Chief Legal Officer
- Talos Energy, Transocean, HighPeak Energy, and Murphy Oil Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
- Murphy Oil Corp's Dividend Analysis
- Murphy Oil (MUR) Has Investors Looking Closer After Its Latest Update
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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