MER.TO (MER) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$1.3B (≈ $973M) · ISIN CA5889141019
What is MER.TO really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 53% above our fair value of C$1.45.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +11.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$1.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.9203 – C$2.76 · fair‑value band C$1.11 – C$1.87 · the C$2.22 price screens above the C$1.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
MER.TO (MER) currently trades at C$2.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$4.16 per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the C$2.22 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.7600, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, MER.TO generated revenue of C$598M at a net margin of −20.9%. Revenue grew 49.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −15.4%. Net debt stands at C$162M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$1.11 (bear case) to C$1.87 (bull case); at C$2.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −35%, MER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$4.16) versus Asset-Based (C$0.7600). Highest evidence: EPV (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Meren Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in Nigeria, Namibia, South Africa, and Equatorial Guinea. The company holds interests in producing and development assets in deepwater Nigeria. It also has a portfolio of development and exploration assets in the west and south of Africa.
Full company description
Meren Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in Nigeria, Namibia, South Africa, and Equatorial Guinea. The company holds interests in producing and development assets in deepwater Nigeria. It also has a portfolio of development and exploration assets in the west and south of Africa. Meren Energy Inc. was formerly known as Africa Oil Corp. and changed its name to Meren Energy Inc. in May 2025. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MER.TO reported revenue of $570M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$32.2M in FY2025.
MER screens 53% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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