Moelis & Company (MC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.0B
Moelis & Company
MC · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $10.70 to $40.73 (+280.7%) since Jul 27, 2026. Share price +5.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($30.55 to $56.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.40 – $76.45 · fair‑value band $30.55 – $56.18 · the $70.38 price screens above the $40.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Moelis & Company (MC) currently trades at $70.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.73, implying the stock looks roughly 42.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Moelis & Company generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $241M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $30.55 (bear case) to $56.18 (bull case); at $70.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -42%, MC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.12) versus Asset-Based ($5.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia.
Full company description
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters, as well as strategic advisory, capital markets, capital structure advisory, and private capital advisory. The company serves public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds clients. Moelis & Company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moelis & Company reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $233M in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −14.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MC screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Moelis (MC) Stock Looks Reasonable On Fair Value Yet Rich On Earnings
- Moelis (MC) Could Be 6% Undervalued As Dividend And Buyback News Lands
- Moelis & Co's Dividend Analysis
- LVMH (ENXTPA:MC) Stock Looks About Right With Cheap Cash Flow And Full Earnings
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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