Moelis & Co (MC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.0B · ISIN US60786M1053
What is Moelis & Co really worth?
Moelis & Co
MC · US
A strong business, but trading 70% above our fair value of $40.73.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($30.55 to $56.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.40 – $76.45 · fair‑value band $30.55 – $56.18 · the $69.14 price screens above the $40.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Moelis & Co (MC) currently trades at $69.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.73, implying the stock looks roughly 69.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $92.12 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $69.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.12, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Moelis & Co generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $241M. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $30.55 (bear case) to $56.18 (bull case); at $69.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −41%, MC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1218 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.12) versus Asset-Based ($5.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia.
Full company description
Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia. It offers advisory services in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters, as well as strategic advisory, capital markets, capital structure advisory, and private capital advisory. The company serves public multinational corporations, middle market private companies, financial sponsors, entrepreneurs, governments, and sovereign wealth funds clients. Moelis & Company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Moelis & Co reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $233M in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.8 % · buybacks/dilution −12.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MC screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
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