Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, (MS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $351B
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,
MS · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $99.08 to $138.97 (+40.3%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($76.96 to $228.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.93 – $228.55 · fair‑value band $76.96 – $228.41 · the $218.38 price screens above the $138.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, (MS) currently trades at $218.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $138.97, implying the stock looks roughly 36.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, generated revenue of $73.2B at a net margin of 24.8%. Revenue grew 16.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. Net debt stands at $364B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $76.96 (bear case) to $228.41 (bull case); at $218.38, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -36%, MS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($132.39) versus Asset-Based ($47.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments.
Full company description
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance. It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities. In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services. Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, reported revenue of $115B in FY2025 versus $57.8B in FY2021, a compound +18.8%/yr. Reported net income was $16.9B in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MS screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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