Morgan Stanley (MS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Morgan Stanley $314, price $182, upside +73.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.58 – $227.30 · fair‑value band $104.67 – $429.22 · the $181.51 price screens below the $314.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 7, 2026.
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Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
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It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments.
The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance.
It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities.
In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services.
Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals.
Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Morgan Stanley (MS) currently trades at $181.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $314.07, implying the stock looks roughly 42.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $410.00 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $181.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $47.62, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $104.67 (bear) to $429.22 (bull), the price of $181.51 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $115B in FY2025 versus $57.8B in FY2021, a compound +18.8%/yr. Reported net income was $16.9B in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $289B · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 2.17 · EPS (TTM) $12.25 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 18.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 73%, MS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$104.67Fair Value $314.07Bull$429.22
Price $181.51 · Upside +73.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.39 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.3% vs 12.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 19%
2025 sits 64% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.2% a year for the price and −5.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from organization and human capital in capital markets paired with wealth management scale forms the main strength, while limited innovation and high leverage represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Exposure to unproven structures and shifting rules in the tokenization and AI infrastructure efforts would hit the durability of emerging recurring revenue streams.
Morgan Stanley pairs its scale in wealth management with active roles in capital markets and fresh efforts around tokenization plus financing AI compute infrastructure as its own asset class. These steps could unlock recurring revenue beyond traditional trading and advisory, yet they also bring exposure to unproven structures and shifting rules. Our models currently see the shares as undervalued. Will the digital initiatives add more durable growth than volatility to the core businesses?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 461 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+73.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)25.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)41.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Morgan Stanley Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MS
Frequently asked questions
Is Morgan Stanley (MS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $314.07 versus a price of $181.51, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MS?
Our model-based fair value for Morgan Stanley is $314.07 (as of Oct 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $181.51.
What is the quality score of MS?
Morgan Stanley has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $314.07 (as of Oct 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $104.67, optimistic scenario $429.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Morgan Stanley stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $314.07, about +73% upside versus a price of $181.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $104.67, optimistic scenario $429.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Morgan Stanley reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $77.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 7, 2026).
Does Morgan Stanley pay a dividend?
Morgan Stanley currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.29% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Morgan Stanley (MS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Morgan Stanley would have to grow free cash flow by -28.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.3 % per year. As of Oct 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MS use?
Our models discount Morgan Stanley at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Morgan Stanley that is -28.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Morgan Stanley (MS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Morgan Stanley grew +18.3 % a year. The price currently implies -28.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Morgan Stanley (MS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Morgan Stanley (-28.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.94 %: that much free cash flow Morgan Stanley produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Morgan Stanley it is $314.07 per share (as of Oct 7, 2026), against a price of $181.51. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Morgan Stanley stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 7, 2026, MS trades below its calculated fair value: price $181.51, fair value $314.07, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($181.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($314.07). For Morgan Stanley the two are $132.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Morgan Stanley worth?
The market values Morgan Stanley at about $289B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 7, 2026). Per share that is $181.51; our models calculate a fair value of $314.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MS?
Our models span a range for Morgan Stanley: cautious scenario $104.67, base $314.07, optimistic $429.22 per share (as of Oct 7, 2026, price $181.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MS?
Morgan Stanley trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Oct 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $314.07 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2022, FY2023 ex one-offs: 13.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 2.6, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 19.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MS?
The PEG ratio of Morgan Stanley is 1.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Morgan Stanley (as of Oct 7, 2026): return on equity 18.0%, debt of 3.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MS from its 52-week high?
Morgan Stanley trades at $181.51, about 20% below its 52-week high of $227.30 and 19% above the low of $151.90 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $314.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Morgan Stanley?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, Robinhood Markets, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Morgan Stanley stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 7, 2026: price $181.51, calculated fair value $314.07 (+73%), Quality Score 66/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MS calculated?
We run Morgan Stanley through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $314.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Morgan Stanley currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $181.51. Our model-based fair value is $314.07, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Morgan Stanley right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($104.67 to $429.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Morgan Stanley (MS) come from?
Earnings per share at Morgan Stanley grew +13.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Morgan Stanley
How large is the market capitalisation of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The market capitalisation of Morgan Stanley is $289B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Morgan Stanley is 2.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Earnings per share at Morgan Stanley are $12.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The dividend yield of Morgan Stanley is 2.3% (payout 33.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The net margin of Morgan Stanley is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Morgan Stanley is 18.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Morgan Stanley is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
The operating margin of Morgan Stanley is 41.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Revenue at Morgan Stanley is growing +28.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Morgan Stanley (MS)?
Earnings per share at Morgan Stanley are growing +62.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Morgan Stanley (MS) carry?
The net debt of Morgan Stanley is $364B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 7, 2026