Morgan Stanley (MS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $351B · ISIN US6174464486
What is Morgan Stanley really worth?
Morgan Stanley
MS · US
A solid business, but trading 56% above our fair value of $138.97.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +0.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($77.78 to $228.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.93 – $228.55 · fair‑value band $77.78 – $228.41 · the $217.15 price screens above the $138.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Morgan Stanley (MS) currently trades at $217.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $138.97, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $133.41 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $217.15 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $47.42, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Morgan Stanley generated revenue of $73.2B at a net margin of 24.8%. Revenue grew 16.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. Net debt stands at $364B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $77.78 (bear case) to $228.41 (bull case); at $217.15, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −36%, MS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.77 per share, which is 3.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($133.41) versus Asset-Based ($47.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments.
Full company description
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance. It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities. In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services. Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $115B in FY2025 versus $57.8B in FY2021, a compound +18.8%/yr. Reported net income was $16.9B in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.3 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MS screens 56% overvalued. Compare with The Goldman Sachs Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zoetis to Participate in the Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
- Why Morgan Stanley (MS) Dipped More Than Broader Market Today
- E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley Releases Monthly Sector Rotation Study
- Morgan Stanley Says U.S. Debt Fears Miss Bigger Story
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
| Nomura Holdings NMR | $10.30 | $9.99 | −3% |
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