Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Nomura Holdings Inc $10.18, price $9.26, upside +9.9%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.57 – $10.86 · fair‑value band $7.18 – $12.73 · the $9.26 price screens below the $10.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale.
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The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services.
The Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment solutions, such as establishing and managing investment trusts, discretionary investment services, investment and management for investment vehicles, funds for institutional investors, and management of silent partnerships.
The Wholesale segment is involved in the sales and trading of debt and equity securities, foreign exchange; offers investment banking services, including underwriting and distribution of debt and equity securities, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services.
Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) currently trades at $9.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.18, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $47.76 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the $9.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.39, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.18 (bear) to $12.73 (bull), the price of $9.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥4.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.4T in FY2022, a compound +36.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥362B in FY2026, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $27.9B · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $0.8500 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 10%, NMR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.18Fair Value $10.18Bull$12.73
Price $9.26 · Upside +9.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.8% vs 7.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 11%
2026 sits 128% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Nomura's main strength lies in its newly built global asset management platform that could provide stable fee income, while its main weak point is the combination of negative operating cash flows and elevated debt.
Main risk: Negative operating and free cash flows combined with elevated total debt risk impairing Nomura's capacity to refinance obligations while maintaining capital markets activities.
Nomura has built out its global asset management platform through the recent acquisition of Macquarie's US and European public asset management business and the appointment of external leadership to drive it forward. This shift could diversify revenues away from volatile capital markets activities. Will the new platform generate stable fee income that offsets trading fluctuations or create integration challenges that dilute focus on core strengths?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 461 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+9.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)17.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)30.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth31.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.18 versus a price of $9.26, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NMR?
Our model-based fair value for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is $10.18 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.26.
What is the quality score of NMR?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.18 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.18, optimistic scenario $12.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nomura Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.18, about +10% upside versus a price of $9.26 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.18, optimistic scenario $12.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.3T (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Nomura Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nomura Holdings Inc ADR it is $10.18 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $9.26. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nomura Holdings Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, NMR trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.26, fair value $10.18, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NMR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.18). For Nomura Holdings Inc ADR the two are $0.9200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nomura Holdings Inc ADR worth?
The market values Nomura Holdings Inc ADR at about $27.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $9.26; our models calculate a fair value of $10.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NMR?
Our models span a range for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR: cautious scenario $7.18, base $10.18, optimistic $12.73 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $9.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NMR?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 26.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NMR?
The PEG ratio of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 0.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 4.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NMR from its 52-week high?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR trades at $9.26, about 15% below its 52-week high of $10.86 and 37% above the low of $6.78 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nomura Holdings Inc ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nomura Holdings Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $9.26, calculated fair value $10.18 (+10%), Quality Score 45/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NMR calculated?
We run Nomura Holdings Inc ADR through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nomura Holdings Inc ADR currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $9.26. Our model-based fair value is $10.18, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nomura Holdings Inc ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) come from?
Earnings per share at Nomura Holdings Inc ADR grew +6.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.0 %, EBIT margin −6.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The market capitalisation of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is $27.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Earnings per share at Nomura Holdings Inc ADR are $0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The dividend yield of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 3.3% (payout 36.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The net margin of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
The operating margin of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is 30.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Revenue at Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is growing +31.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR)?
Earnings per share at Nomura Holdings Inc ADR are growing +42.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) generate?
The free cash flow of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is −¥1.2T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) carry?
The net debt of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is ¥13.0T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026