CITIC Securities Co Ltd (600030) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 419B CNY (≈ $62.5B) · ISIN CNE000001DB6
What is CITIC Securities Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 58% above our fair value of ¥17.68.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥22.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥15.74 – ¥33.40 · fair‑value band ¥13.26 – ¥22.10 · the ¥27.99 price screens above the ¥17.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
CITIC Securities Co Ltd (600030) currently trades at ¥27.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.68, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, CITIC Securities Co Ltd generated revenue of 82.5B CNY at a net margin of 40.8%. Revenue grew 44.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at 564B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥13.26 (bear case) to ¥22.10 (bull case); at ¥27.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −37%, 600030 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥1.02 per share, which is 5.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥18.35) versus Asset-Based (¥14.46). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (53).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CITIC Securities Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Brokerage, Asset Management, Securities Investment, Securities Underwriting, and Other.
Full company description
CITIC Securities Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Brokerage, Asset Management, Securities Investment, Securities Underwriting, and Other. The company offers investment banking, including equity, bonds, asset-backed securitization, and merger and acquisition; asset management for active, passive, and cross-border investments, as well as alternative businesses; and equity sales and trading services, such as research, equity project sales, equity product marketing, equity trading, transaction execution, and algo trading services. It also provides margin trading, short selling, securities borrowing and lending, and stock repo and financing; wealth management comprising trade service, investment management, and asset allocation and succession; and FICC business, which includes sales, trading, investment advisory, and structured products and derivatives. In addition, the company offers research services; and custody, fund administration, and interbank market client clearing services. It serves corporate, institutional, and retail clients. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CITIC Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 74.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 90.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.7%/yr. Reported net income was 30.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.2 % · buybacks/dilution −2.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
600030 screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
| Nomura Holdings NMR | $10.30 | $9.99 | −3% |
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