Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CH · Market cap CHF 22.2B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 7,431). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (CHF 2,503 to CHF 7,431). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 7,743 – CHF 13,411 · fair‑value band CHF 2,503 – CHF 7,431 · the CHF 9,485 price screens above the CHF 4,636 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISP) currently trades at CHF 9,485, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 4,636, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG generated revenue of CHF 6.0B at a net margin of 12.2%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at CHF 1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 2,503 (bear case) to CHF 7,431 (bull case); at CHF 9,485, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -51%, LISP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (CHF 5,716) versus Asset-Based (CHF 1,432). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Küfferle, and Pangburn's, Gold Bunny, and Lindor brands.
Full company description
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Caffarel, Hofbauer and Küfferle, and Pangburn's, Gold Bunny, and Lindor brands. It serves customers through a network of distributors, as well as through own stores. The company was founded in 1845 and is headquartered in Kilchberg, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG reported revenue of CHF 5.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 4.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 727M in FY2025, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
LISP screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Mondelez International, Inc →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.78 | $27.36 | -56% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $184.23 | $91.25 | -50% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,127 | CHF 711.91 | -37% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 132,800 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +53% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | -43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | -56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹604.70 | ₹304.54 | -50% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | -12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 26,850 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +57% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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